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Ongoing reports and analysis

The U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran is now in its seventh month, with costs during periods of heavy fighting estimated at roughly $1 billion per day. Despite having the world’s most powerful military, the United States has failed to achieve the Trump administration’s constantly shifting war aims—initially the overthrow of a deeply unpopular, conventionally inferior adversary.

As the war dragged past his promised “four to five weeks,” U.S. President Donald Trump has traded his maximalist objectives for terms inferior to the prewar status quo. An even more hard-line Iranian regime still controls the Strait of Hormuz as Trump alternates threats to destroy Persian civilization with ever-greater concessions in search of an off-ramp. The United States chose the time, place, and manner of this war, but Iran now holds the upper hand in deciding when—and on what terms—the war ends. By some of his own staff’s accounts, Trump’s war has failed, and not for lack of military capability.

The U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran is now in its seventh month, with costs during periods of heavy fighting estimated at roughly $1 billion per day. Despite having the world’s most powerful military, the United States has failed to achieve the Trump administration’s constantly shifting war aims—initially the overthrow of a deeply unpopular, conventionally inferior adversary.

As the war dragged past his promised “four to five weeks,” U.S. President Donald Trump has traded his maximalist objectives for terms inferior to the prewar status quo. An even more hard-line Iranian regime still controls the Strait of Hormuz as Trump alternates threats to destroy Persian civilization with ever-greater concessions in search of an off-ramp. The United States chose the time, place, and manner of this war, but Iran now holds the upper hand in deciding when—and on what terms—the war ends. By some of his own staff’s accounts, Trump’s war has failed, and not for lack of military capability.

Indeed, this failure was secured in Washington, the inevitable outcome of Trump’s 19-month campaign against the city’s own institutions and workforce. Trump gutted the National Security Council (NSC), purged the Defense Department’s military leadership, and politicized intelligence, all while Congress failed to assert its authority. In place of qualified staff, Trump relied on outside advisors, relatives, and self-appointed internet activists whose lists of “enemies within” reached his desk, while intelligence assessments did not.

The result was a poor understanding of a long-studied adversary, a lack of attainable objectives, a breakdown in policy and defense planning, and an inability to identify diplomatic off-ramps, all leading ultimately to catastrophe.

Since its creation, the National........

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