Middle East and North Africa

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community is the country’s fastest-growing population group, with an average fertility rate of around 6.5 children per woman. By 2050, nearly 1 in 4 to Israelis is projected to be Haredi.

Those facts have been known for some time. But as a national election approaches on Oct. 27, they have become the focus of Israeli politics. As Israelis prepare to vote, many are asking themselves whether the growing Haredi community is adding to the country’s troubles—and whether anything should be done about that. Their answer to that question could determine the election outcome.

Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community is the country’s fastest-growing population group, with an average fertility rate of around 6.5 children per woman. By 2050, nearly 1 in 4 to Israelis is projected to be Haredi.

Those facts have been known for some time. But as a national election approaches on Oct. 27, they have become the focus of Israeli politics. As Israelis prepare to vote, many are asking themselves whether the growing Haredi community is adding to the country’s troubles—and whether anything should be done about that. Their answer to that question could determine the election outcome.

Haredim largely resist compulsory military service, and their contribution to the formal economy remains limited. Although many Haredi women work, a large proportion of men devote themselves to Torah study. The community has fiercely guarded its way of life, leveraging its political influence in coalition governments and presenting itself as the guardian of Jewish spirituality.

Since Oct. 7, 2023, however, Israel has fought prolonged wars in Gaza and Lebanon as well as a confrontation with Iran, increasing the demand for military personnel. Non-Haredi Israelis have become increasingly vocal in opposing what they see as an unfair distribution of the burden. Must they risk their lives while Haredi men remain at home? Many see Haredi life as a privilege in times of war—and one that the country can no longer afford.

Divisions within Israeli society have deepened, particularly as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has warned of a shortage of as many as 12,000 soldiers and called on the ultra-Orthodox to help fill the gap. Around 80,000 Haredim aged 18-24 are reportedly believed to be eligible for military service but have not enlisted. If they continue to refuse to enlist but keep growing in numbers as data suggests, the proportion of the population available for military service will shrink over time.

As elections approach, the public debate in Israel is focused less on a two-state solution, reconstruction in Gaza, or peace with the Palestinians than on Israel’s security. The clash between Haredi and non-Haredi Jews has emerged as one of the country’s most........

© Foreign Policy