At the time of writing, prediction markets favor Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro to win Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff. But only a few months ago, his candidacy appeared to be coming off the rails. In mid-May, the far-right senator became embroiled in a major corruption scandal following the publication of leaked messages that showed he had asked for roughly $27 million from a now-jailed former banker at the center of the biggest banking fraud in Brazilian history.

The funds—around $12 million of which were transferred to a Texas account linked to the candidate’s brother Eduardo—were purportedly to help finance a hagiographic biopic about their father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest for plotting a coup to overturn Brazil’s 2022 election. Soon after the scandal broke, Flávio’s poll numbers began to plummet. He urgently needed to change the subject.

At the time of writing, prediction markets favor Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro to win Brazil’s Oct. 25 presidential runoff. But only a few months ago, his candidacy appeared to be coming off the rails. In mid-May, the far-right senator became embroiled in a major corruption scandal following the publication of leaked messages that showed he had asked for roughly $27 million from a now-jailed former banker at the center of the biggest banking fraud in Brazilian history.

The funds—around $12 million of which were transferred to a Texas account linked to the candidate’s brother Eduardo—were purportedly to help finance a hagiographic biopic about their father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, who remains under house arrest for plotting a coup to overturn Brazil’s 2022 election. Soon after the scandal broke, Flávio’s poll numbers began to plummet. He urgently needed to change the subject.

The following week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio came to the rescue. On May 26, Trump received Flávio in the Oval Office for an unannounced photo-op. He told reporters that he had asked Trump to label Brazil’s biggest gangs as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs). Rubio granted the designation two days later. Flávio was able to project political strength and shift the conversation from corruption to insecurity; his candidacy was once again secure.

The FTO classifications are yet another example of the Trump administration interfering in Brazilian politics, coming on top of politically motivated tariffs on Brazilian exports (which Eduardo lobbied for) and sanctions on the Supreme Court justice who prosecuted Jair Bolsonaro. They are not dissimilar to the administration’s aggressive efforts to influence recent elections in Argentina, Colombia, and Honduras.

Beyond their symbolic impact in an election year, it’s worth considering what the U.S. FTO designations could mean for Brazil’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy—especially if Flávio wins on Sunday. Brazilians have reason to fear that their country could become engulfed in Trump’s expanding war on what he calls “narco-terrorism.”

Waging war on regional drug trafficking organizations was a prominent campaign theme for Trump. In January 2023, he announced that he would “take down the cartels just as we took down........

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