The U.S. produces more energy than it consumes. Yet the price of oil has soared about 70% since Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, according to LiteFinance.

Oil trades on a global market — a dynamic that accelerated in 2015 when Congress lifted a ban on U.S. oil exports. And as has been known for weeks, the largely shuttered Strait of Hormuz has stopped the flow of 20% of the world’s oil supply, per the International Energy Agency.

In the stock market, the surge in energy prices since Feb. 28 has created some surprises. Many of the winners have been energy companies — but a memory-chip maker and vaccine producer Moderna have also enjoyed share-price gains.

On the losing side, software companies have suffered from something other than higher oil prices — the SaaSpocalypse.

Why Energy Prices Are Up Even With A U.S. Surplus

Since the Iran war began, oil, gasoline and diesel prices have surged between 38% and 70%. Here are some examples of price increases since Feb. 28:

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WTI crude oil is up 69.9% per barrel — from $65.65 to $111.54.

The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline per gallon up 37.9% — from $2.98 to $4.11.

The national average price for diesel per gallon is up 50.8% — from $3.72 to $5.61.

These increases have happened despite a glut of U.S. energy. More specifically, the U.S. produces 1.3 million more barrels per day than the 20.4 million bpd it consumes.

In 2025, the U.S. produced the equivalent of 21.7 million bpd — including 13.6 million bpd in crude oil production and 8.1 million bpd through natural gas plant liquids, biofuels and refinery processing gains, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

There is a technical subtlety to this analysis. The U.S. exports 2.8 million bpd more than it imports, per the EIA. However, it imports 6.2 million bpd of heavy crude.

Most U.S. refineries — located on the Gulf Coast — process heavy, sour crude from Venezuela, Mexico, Canada and the Middle East. U.S. shale production — accounting for net exports — is predominantly light, sweet crude, notes the Baker Institute.

Why Oil Trades On A Global Market

Despite record production, U.S. oil prices are set on the global market for four interconnected reasons:

Oil is a globally fungible commodity. “Crude oil and petroleum product prices are the result of thousands of transactions taking place simultaneously around the world… Oil markets are essentially a global auction — the highest bidder will win the available supply,” the EIA explained.

The 2015 export-ban repeal integrated U.S. oil into world markets. Before Congress lifted the crude oil export ban in December 2015, WTI crude traded at a $10 to $29 per-barrel discount below Brent due to a domestic shale glut. After the ban ended, U.S. crude exports rose from 0.4 million bpd to 4.0 million bpd — which “expanded the market for U.S. crude oil to overseas buyers and allowed U.S. crude oil producers to charge higher prices,” the U.S. GAO noted.

Arbitrage enforces price convergence. If U.S. crude traded below the world price, global trading would bid up the price until the gap closed.

Gasoline prices follow global markets. Even if domestic crude were cheaper, gasoline and diesel prices would not follow because refined products trade freely internationally, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve.

Who The Biggest Winners And Losers Are

The five weeks since Feb. 28 produced a dramatic sector rotation. Energy stocks achieved their second-best quarter relative to the S&P 500 since 1999, while software stocks plunged due to fears that AI would wipe out their revenues.

The Biggest Gainers Since Late February 2026

The energy sector (XLE) has gained about 41% year to date, outpacing the next-best sector by more than 30 percentage points. ExxonMobil hit all-time highs, gaining nearly 39%, while Chevron rose 35%.

Other energy industry winners include Marathon Oil, a Permian Basin producer whose stock is up 67%; Berkshire-backed oil producer Occidental Petroleum (+60%); Shale producer Devon Energy (+67%); and oil refiner Valero Energy, whose sharply expanding margins helped boost its shares by 52%.

AI-related hardware names — particularly data storage and optical networking — also surged on unrelated demand tailwinds. These include AI flash-storage provider SanDisk, which enjoyed a 168% increase in its stock on high demand for its products, and AI optical-networking company Lumentum, whose shares are up 91%.

The Biggest Losers Since Late February 2026

Fear of being displaced by AI sent shares of software companies plunging. Language-learning app Duolingo suffered a 43% drop in its shares; database provider MongoDB fell 42%; enterprise SaaS platform Workday dropped 40%; and Microsoft declined 23%.

Where Markets Go From Here

Since supply exceeds demand, Brent crude prices will likely fall back to the $60 to 80 range by year-end once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, FXOpen noted.

Risk-seeking investors may consider placing bets on a drop in the share prices of large oil companies that have enjoyed steep, rapid gains since late February.

Meanwhile, it will take much more than unblocking the global flow of oil to make software stocks attractive. For example, to make its stock a buy, Microsoft must execute a difficult-to-achieve improvement in its AI strategy — both its chatbot and agentic AI tools — to surpass industry leaders in delivering value to end users.

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