As diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran inch forward, despite both sides still engaging in periodic military strikes, it seems likely that they will eventually agree to an initial memo of understanding to be followed by 30 to 60 days when specific details of a peace agreement can be negotiated.

Regardless of when a deal is finally reached, we can already identify several security challenges that will linger over the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Murky Outlook For The Strait of Hormuz

Once an interim peace agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial shipping, there are several challenges that will have to be addressed before the strait can return to something akin to normal operations.

First, industry and maritime experts anticipate that it will take at least a few weeks to clear the existing backlog of hundreds of commercial tankers and cargo ships laden with oil, natural gas and fertilizers. There are already reports that several commercial ships have moved closer to the strait in anticipation of an opening. Simply organizing an orderly departure timeline and route for this many vessels will require significant logistical coordination.

At the same time, shipping firms will still presumably have to reach an accommodation with their insurers before resuming passage through the strait. While this may be done in short order, it might also require a broader effort to organize a multinational naval escort operation and identify a country or coalition of countries to lead it.

And then there is the issue of sea mines. Before strait traffic resumes on a large scale, minesweeping will likely be necessary: IRGC mines have reportedly been placed in the straight during the conflict, some as recently as last weekend. This operation is likely to take longer than expected given that some of Iran’s floating, moored, or poorly deployed mines might have been moved by shifting currents. It’s possible that even Tehran might not know where to find these mines and their threat to shipping lanes.

It’s also worth remembering that tensions are likely to be quite high in the initial aftermath of a peace deal, so even an occasional exchange of fire by ill-disciplined or isolated units near the strait, especially involving Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, could spook commercial shippers and delay the effort to resume transit.

As of now, experts believe that shipping through the strait will likely return to 30-50% of pre-war volume within several weeks of an initial US-Iran peace agreement. However, returning to pre-war shipping........

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