The Berlin world premiere of Michael—the new Antoine Fuqua-directed biopic starring Michael Jackson’s nephew Jaafaar in the title role—saw thousands of King of Pop fans gather outside the theater, rapturous applause after each of the movie’s musical numbers, and fawning praise over the lead performance. Left out of the celebratory film and tightly controlled red carpet rollout was any mention of the sexual abuse accusations that complicate his legacy. Yet producer Graham King admitted to being “nervous and anxious” to see the film with audiences for the first time.

“A lot has happened on this film that I question how, why,” said King, who also produced the Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody. “I used to say Freddie Mercury was throwing hurdles down at me. Michael did the same. So Michael and Freddie are up there together laughing right now.”

With an initial $150 million budget, Michael was already the most ambitious biopic of all time when it wrapped initial production in May 2024. That was before the estate’s executors learned of a clause in a 1994 settlement with one of Jackson’s child molestation accusers agreeing to never dramatize their story on screen, rendering a significant amount of footage useless. Instead of a 3.5-hour epic, Lionsgate and the filmmakers decided to end the movie in the late 1980s at the height of Jackson’s career following Thriller and Bad—and the estate agreed to fund 22 days of additional production at a cost Forbes estimates to be more than $25 million (some reports put it at as much as $50 million).

Now Michael needs to gross more than $500 million globally to be profitable—a mark only ever reached by one other movie in the genre, Bohemian Rhapsody—and Lionsgate is reportedly hoping for more than $700 million (including downstream revenue from streaming etc.) in order to greenlight a sequel, which would cover the second half of Jackson’s life using some of the existing footage. As a co-investor in the movie, the Jackson estate could be on the hook for millions if it doesn’t break even, but as an equity partner is also in position to earn more if Michael turns into a Bohemian-sized blockbuster (passing $900 million globally in 2018). In addition to an estimated $10 million the estate earned up front for co-producing and licensing the music, its estimated 25% profit participation could return more than $40 million on top of the initial investment, in the best case scenario. That’s not including expected sales bumps to Jackson’s music........

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