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Tax Breaks: The Post Tax Season Hangover Edition

8 0
18.04.2026

That collective exhale you heard this week?

It was the sound of tens of millions of taxpayers and tax professionals finally taking a breath after an unpredictable (and sometimes chaotic) tax season.

The IRS expected to receive 164 million tax returns by April 15, and we don’t yet know whether we met that number. If we did, it would mean a flurry of returns was filed in the last five days of the tax season. As of April 10, the agency has received about 114.3 million returns so far, down 2.8% from the same point in 2025, with processing numbers tracking slightly lower as well.

(If you still haven’t filed yet, don’t forget to sign your return properly—even if you e-file—and make sure that any mailed returns and payments are postmarked.)

The story throughout the season has focused on refunds. The IRS has issued more than 78 million refunds totaling $265.2 billion, pushing the average refund up to $3,397—an increase of over 11% from last year.

But, significantly, the increase wasn’t as significant as many in Congress and the White House had hoped. In January, the White House declared that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would deliver “the biggest tax refund season ever, with average refunds projected to rise by $1,000 or more this year due to its transformative policies.” As of April 10, the average refund had risen by just $342.

Importantly, much of the current bump is tied to tax law changes that boosted deductions and credits without corresponding updates to withholding tables, but those numbers likely won’t look the same in 2027. To be clear, the tax savings aren’t going anywhere—but you’ll see those extra dollars in your paycheck as you go instead of a big check next year. In dollars, a $342 increase means those taxpayers would see an average of $6.58 more in their weekly paychecks.

Of course, those folks who are writing checks rather than cashing them are likely less enthusiastic about tax season and the IRS. In this week’s episode of History Is Taxing, Robert Goulder and Joseph Thorndike of Tax Notes explore tax collection throughout U.S. history, from tariffs to tax returns, and how the past has shaped Americans’ perception of tax.

The consensus? Nobody likes a tax collector. It’s a truth that has echoed across centuries of American history and still shapes how taxpayers view the IRS today. While people may resent paying taxes and the scrutiny that comes with enforcement, they are equally frustrated by the idea that others might not be paying their fair share. That push and pull has defined the evolution of the nation’s tax system. Over time, the consensus seems to be that the IRS has been shaped as much by public skepticism and political pressure as by economics and the need to fund federal programs.

The modern income tax system has been in place for more than 100 years. The shift towards an income tax—instead of a series of excise taxes — didn’t just reshape how the government raises revenue; it also helped set the stage for one of the most dramatic shifts in American drinking culture. After the 16th Amendment reduced reliance on alcohol excise taxes, Congress moved forward with Prohibition (known as the 18th Amendment), which banned the manufacture and sale of alcohol and unintentionally pushed drinking underground into speakeasies and bootlegging networks. The result was a surge in improvised, often low-quality liquor that demanded creativity to make it palatable.

The result? What many consider to be the golden age of cocktail experimentation. Bartenders and home mixers leaned on citrus, sugar,........

© Forbes