Nine of the largest technology companies have committed to around $3 trillion of AI spending that does not appear on their balance sheets, five times the capital expenditure they reported over the past year. Morgan Stanley expects AI-related debt issuance to reach $570 billion globally in 2026, more than double last year.

AI may prove to be one of the most important technologies of this generation. However, borrowing to fund its development has reached enormous levels, and the revenue that would justify current valuations has not turned up yet.

Strain is already showing. Banks spent months trying to spread the risk of billions of dollars of loans they made to build data centers leased to Oracle in Texas and Wisconsin, which clogged their balance sheets and made the next projects harder to finance. While some argue that pressure on the wider U.S. bond market has little to do with the AI borrowing binge, we might be testing the limits of how much debt AI can support.

Nobody knows whether this ends in steady growth, a slow deflation, or a crash. But having a plan for any scenario is important. Here are the ways an AI downturn could reach your business, and what to do about it before it wreaks havoc.

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How A Bursting AI bubble Could Reach Your Business

Your Suppliers Come Under Pressure

Your business depends on software companies you have never thought about as borrowers. Private credit funds had lent over $500 billion to software-as-a-service........

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