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Forbes Daily: Why The Iran War Muddied The Waters For A Fed Rate Cut

7 0
12.03.2026

In an effort to ease global energy disruption as a result of the ongoing conflict in Iran, members of the International Energy Agency voted unanimously for the largest-ever release of oil from their strategic reserves—400 million barrels.

The key pain point is the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil supply moves. Iranian officials said Wednesday the country will not allow oil to pass from the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. and its allies. Middle Eastern countries have slashed their oil production by about two-thirds as a result of the closure of the crucial waterway, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, oil prices have continued to surge: Global crude prices once again crossed the $100 per barrel mark late Wednesday, while an Iranian official warned that prices could reach $200 per barrel.

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Google completed the largest purchase in its history, closing a $32 billion all-cash acquisition of Israeli cloud security startup Wiz. It’s a major bet from the tech giant on cloud-based security, and the deal boosted Wiz’s four cofounders, lifting their combined net worth to $9.2 billion.

Shares of several major banks fell after Iran threatened to target financial institutions in the Middle East with links to the U.S. and Israel. Iranian news agencies said Wednesday that a building linked to one of the country’s largest banks was hit overnight in an attack the Iranian military called “illegitimate and unconventional.”

ABOUT THOSE INFLATION NUMBERS

Investors would typically welcome an inflation report like we got Wednesday, showing that consumer prices increased less than expected in February. Instead, they’re bracing for impact from the Iran war.

Consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-over-year, beating consensus analyst estimates, but the data doesn’t yet reflect the surge in gas prices since the start of the conflict, affecting not just drivers but also the transportation sector. Still, the report does reveal evidence that tariffs are causing price jumps, explains Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. For instance, apparel prices surged 1.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year over year—the most since October 2023.

Brusuelas expects a sharp jump in inflation in March, which further complicates the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices—especially after Friday’s concerning jobs report. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady when it meets next week. “I think now we can effectively rule out any rate cuts in the first half of the year,” Brusuelas tells Forbes Daily.

Even if the military action winds down in the next few weeks, the economic shocks could be felt for months, he says. At the same time, the Fed is under immense pressure from President Donald Trump to reduce rates. “We’re going to enter some really uncharted terrain here on the direction of monetary policy.”

Amid the rise of vibe coding, startup Replit unveiled an AI agent Wednesday that aims to go beyond prompts with a new type of whiteboard-style interface—a “digital canvas” that allows users to tweak mockups and designs, doodle drawings of new features, and collaborate with other developers in real time. The company also announced a new fundraising round of $400 million, propelling its valuation to $9 billion and making CEO Amjad Masad a billionaire for the first time.

Preliminary findings from a U.S. military investigation determined the U.S. mistakenly fired a Tomahawk missile at an Iranian elementary school in late February, killing an estimated 175 people, many of them children. President Donald Trump said he was unaware of the investigation, which found the error was attributed to outdated Defense Department targeting data that showed the school was part of an adjacent Iranian military base.

The Trump Administration believes it can fend off long-term impacts on oil prices for about four weeks, Politico reported, as the president has made contradicting remarks on the objectives and length of military operations in Iran. On Wednesday, Trump told reporters he needs to see “more of the same” when asked what has to happen militarily for him to end the conflict.

Tesla’s Best Growth Story Isn’t Robotaxis—It’s Batteries

Tesla’s era as the market’s can’t-miss EV growth engine has passed, cracking under tougher competition and softer demand.

But while CEO Elon Musk keeps the stock aloft with robotaxi bloviating and Optimus cosplay, the company’s energy arm is doing the one thing Wall Street loves, and hype can’t fake: booking revenue. Inside Tesla’s sprawling identity crisis, grid-scale batteries and, potentially, solar are the closest thing it now has to a can’t-miss bet.

“It’s their best business,” said Tesla investor and frequent Musk critic Ross Gerber, CEO of California-based wealth management firm Gerber Kawasaki.

For a decade, Tesla has packaged and sold battery cells in Powerwall packs for residential solar installations and much larger Megapacks for utility-scale power storage. In 2025, the company’s battery business booked a record $12.8 billion of revenue, up 27%, while its annual auto revenues dropped 10% to $69.5 billion. Tesla is still overwhelmingly a car company by revenue, but the direction of travel is what matters: Energy is growing, autos are shrinking, and the macro backdrop suggests that the gap can widen.

And now, with data centers straining utilities’ capacity and pushing residential electricity prices higher, Tesla is also looking to return to solar-panel manufacturing after earlier ambitions, including the solar roof, failed to meet expectations.

WHY IT MATTERS “Billions of dollars of additional revenue for Tesla from sales of energy products are helping to blunt the company’s falling EV sales, still its top source of income,” says Forbes senior editor Alan Ohnsman. “While Musk wants to turn Tesla into a new company, leading in robotaxis and humanoid robots, it’s not at all clear when those will become profitable businesses. Continuing to expand battery pack production and become a meaningful player in the solar market—making its own panels, not just installing them—looks like a smart bet as energy demand spikes.”

MORE Ex-Top Tesla Engineer Raises $140 Million To Rewire The Electric Grid

McDonald’s is launching discounted menu items and cheaper breakfast deals as fast food chains make an effort to retain lower-income customers being hit by inflation, according to the Wall Street Journal. The new menu options will debut in April:

$3 or less: The new cost for some existing items the chain will introduce, as well as $4 breakfast meal deals

$7 billion: How much revenue McDonald’s generated in its latest quarter

Less than $100,000: Households earning this much aren’t dining out as often, Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright said last year

Many women fall into a “people pleaser” role at work, and while it feels like you’re showing dedication, it often leads to exhaustion. It’s important to understand where the tendency comes from, and treat your time like a limited resource, saying no to requests that don’t align with your strategic priorities.

Yet another billionaire is moving from the West Coast to Florida, reportedly buying a $44 million penthouse near Miami. The new resident of the sunshine state is the former CEO of which chain?

Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Sarah Whitmire and Chris Dobstaff.


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