It was supposed to be a year of rate cuts. But amid the Iran war, traders are bracing for the first interest rate increase in over two-and-a half years.

The probability of an interest rate hike this year reached as high as 53% Friday—the first time odds surpassed 50%. The Fed hasn’t raised rates since July 2023, though the central bank indicated after its meeting last week that it still expects an interest rate reduction this year and another in 2027.

Still, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC he could “see circumstances” for an interest rate hike if inflation was “getting out of control.”

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President Donald Trump issued an emergency executive order Friday to pay TSA agents as travelers at airports across the country experienced hours-long wait times. But workers missed a second full paycheck Friday, and “callouts might not stop until we get some money in our pockets,” one TSA officer told Forbes anonymously.

MORE: The partial government shutdown could last several more weeks as the House of Representatives rejected a Senate plan to fund DHS. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Friday the House would pursue a short-term package to fund the agency, but the Senate—which left Washington for a two-week recess—would need to approve any new legislation.

Major stock indexes slumped for a fifth straight week as oil prices continued their ascent. It’s the S&P 500’s longest losing streak since May 2022,........

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