In this week’s edition of InnovationRx, we look at why the Iran war could make your MRI more expensive, a serial entrepreneur’s effort to build an FDA-approved AI doctor, Pfizer’s lyme disease vaccine, and more. To get it in your inbox, subscribe here.

The ongoing war in Iran may make your next MRI more expensive. That’s because one-third of the global supply of helium, a key requirement for MRI machines, comes from Qatar and flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s attacks on Qatar’s natural gas production have knocked out some of its capacity, while its closure of the Strait has limited trade. Helium, which is extracted alongside natural gas, is crucial for cooling down the magnets in MRIs.

Over the past four weeks since the war began, helium spot prices have doubled, and analysts expect that even customers whose prices are set by contract may find themselves stuck with force majeure surcharges. Even if the war were to end today, it would take months for some of Qatar’s production to restart and for supply chains to recover. Demand for helium has accelerated in recent years due to the AI boom, as the gas is also necessary for semiconductor manufacturing. While hospitals get first dibs on helium if there’s a shortage, the competition with chipmakers, who are now the largest consumer of it, means they’ll face higher prices for it.

While it’s unlikely that patients who need an MRI won’t be able to get one, it could make them more expensive, Michael Hoff, a professor at the UCSF School of Medicine, told Forbes. That’s especially true in less wealthy hospitals because older MRI systems “require regular helium pumping and refilling,” he said, making them more sensitive to helium prices.

Over the long term, prolonged high prices could push hospitals to buy newer machines with lower operating costs, he said. But in the short term, higher helium prices could make “MRIs relatively unaffordable compared to a year ago,” Hoff said.

If hospitals pass on those higher operating costs, then cash-strapped patients–especially those whose insurance won’t cover the full costs of the imaging–might choose not to get the medical images they need and their health could suffer as a result.

This Serial Entrepreneur Wants The FDA To Approve His AI Doctor

Martin Varsavsky has trouble keeping track of all the ventures he’s started. There are more than a dozen of them, including a handful that became worth more than $1 billion. But Certuma, which launched quietly this winter, may be his biggest idea yet: He plans to build the first FDA-approved AI doctor.

“What’s happening now is everyone you know, and probably you yourself, are checking your medical problems with AI. But then what happens when you want action? The AI, after giving you a wonderful, accurate diagnosis of what’s wrong with you, says, ‘I am not a doctor,’” Varsavsky, 65, tells Forbes. He ticks off all the questions it might answer this way, from getting a prescription to scheduling imaging. “I want to fix the ‘I am not a doctor’ problem by building AI that is recognized by the FDA and recognized by the states.”

AI doctors could help solve an important problem, much like telemedicine did during the Covid-19 pandemic. There simply aren’t enough physicians to serve all the people who need them, especially in rural areas. The shortage is only getting worse. More than 100 million people in the United States face barriers to accessing primary care. Meanwhile, some 46% of counties don’t have a cardiologist; in rural counties, that number rises to 86%. The biggest danger is that it will provide inaccurate advice or incorrect treatment that harms – or, worse, kills – a patient, and that any safeguards will fail to catch the errors.

Austin, Texas-based Certuma has an early target list of 25 medical conditions, including urinary tract infections and sore throats. All are common health problems that take up a lot of primary care doctors’ time, but are treated with a standard protocol. To launch the company, he raised $10 million in seed funding led by Joe Lonsdale’s 8VC at a valuation of $60 million.

The company is working simultaneously in the United States and in Varsavsky’s native Argentina, where any clinical trials would cost a lot less and where he has connections with its libertarian President Javier Milei. It’s a long way to go from there to an AI doctor approved in the U.S., but Varsavsky, who Forbes estimates is worth at least $700 million, has a decent shot at it. Previously, he built the largest chain of fertility clinics in North America, and has substantial experience starting businesses at the intersection of medicine and technology that require FDA oversight.

Read the full story here.

Pfizer Lyme Disease Vaccine Shows Promise–But Regulatory Hurdles Loom

Pfizer plans to seek FDA approval for its Lyme vaccine despite missing its target in a late-stage clinical trial.

Pfizer and its partner, French vaccine company Valneva, released clinical trial data showing that their Lyme disease vaccine candidate reduced the risk of symptomatic Lyme disease more than 70% in people who received it versus a placebo.

Nearly half a million Americans are diagnosed with Lyme disease every year. The disease, typically spread by ticks, can cause serious complications if not treated early with antibiotics–which is common as it looks like the flu. Those complications include heart problems, arthritis and nerve issues such as facial paralysis.

There is currently no vaccine for Lyme disease, which makes this one promising. Valneva has projected annual peak sales of $1 billion.

But it may face regulatory hurdles because the results of the clinical study failed to meet its statistical confidence target. That’s because there were fewer cases of Lyme disease observed in the study than anticipated, and it did not consider asymptomatic infections.

This doesn’t necessarily mean the vaccine is less effective than it appears, but it may complicate regulatory approval, which the companies plan to seek in both the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. is also a wild card because of increasing hostility towards vaccines under Robert F. Kennedy’s leadership of the Health and Human Services Department. If the vaccine is approved, analysts suggest it could be limited to higher-risk groups rather than approved for the general population.

“There could be a path forward,” Jefferies analysts wrote in a research note. “While we're more confident on approval in the EU due to regulatory flexibility, we think approval in the US is still a question.”

Doctronic, a startup that is using its AI to renew prescriptions in a much-watched Utah pilot of what an AI doctor might look like, raised $40 million led by Abstract and Lightspeed Venture Partners to fund its growth. The new financing brings its total funds raised to $65 million at an undisclosed valuation.

The Utah pilot is the first in the country that allows an AI to take on a doctor’s responsibility–in this case, approving renewals of a specific list of commonly prescribed medications–as a way to handle the country’s shortage of doctors.

Earlier this month, researchers at Mindgard found that its medical chatbot could be hacked to give dangerous medical advice; Doctronic has said that the vulnerabilities uncovered don’t reflect the safeguards of the AI system managing patient prescriptions in Utah. Founders Matt Pavelle and Dr. Adam Oskowitz started Doctronic three years ago, and set up the Utah pilot as a low-risk test for what its AI could do.

Novo Nordisk’s patent for semaglutide, the primary ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, has expired in India, sparking a flood of cheaper generic versions.

Minnesota-based provider Allina Health announced plans to merge with California’s Sutter Health, creating a 39-hospital nonprofit system. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Verily, which began as a moonshot of Google X, raised $300 million led by Series X Capital as it moves out from the Alphabet umbrella and plans to accelerate its AI platform.

Forty-three current and former CDC employees talk about the turmoil inside RFK Jr.’s CDC that’s making Americans more vulnerable.

Robert Malone, one of Kennedy’s controversial picks for the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee, is stepping down following a court ruling that disbanded the panel pending litigation over whether its current membership was lawfully appointed.

Japanese pharma company Shionogi has agreed to pay sleep therapy startup Apnimed $100 million upfront to buy out its half of their sleep disorder joint venture. Forbes profiled Apnimed and its efforts to create a pill for sleep apnea earlier this year.

A majority of radiologists can’t spot a deepfake X-ray, according to a new study in the journal Radiology.

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