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Terence Corcoran: The ‘hegemon' leaves Carney in the shadows

But while grabbing fewer headlines than the attacks on Iran, the PM's new trade deals with India may still be good policy

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In keeping with his widely acclaimed Davos speech, Prime Minister Mark Carney while in India delivered additional commentary reinforcing his belief that the old world power order is in decline, to be replaced by middle-power nations. In an interview in Mumbai, Carney said it would be wrong to describe India, with a booming US$4.5-trillion economy that’s twice the size of Canada’s, as a lowly middle power. With a population of 1.4 billion that has produced world-leading annual growth rates of nine per cent, India could in time become one of the world’s largest economies.

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But not yet. Which became obvious over the past few days as Carney’s middle-power tour has been pushed aside as the United States has assumed its role as the leader of the “hegemonic” world order Carney wants to replace. In a speech in Mumbai on Saturday, Carney carefully avoided the middle-power reference by describing Canada and India as “non-hegemons” who are “complementary nations” facing a “rupture” in the world order. In another address, Carney said the “challenges of our age cannot be solved by one country alone.”

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While it is obviously true that no single nation can fix global crises, it is certain that only one nation has the capacity to lead the attack on an internally murderous and internationally terrorizing regime in Iran. Carney constantly repeats his anti-hegemon rhetoric even though only the American hegemon has the ability to take on and potentially overturn a government that poses a threat to global peace and stability.

The U.S. may well be on the brink of reshaping global power structures in the Middle East and other regions around the globe. It is easy to disparage the existing world order largely fashioned by western nations under United States leadership, but that order is part of the largely beneficial international structure that allows nations such as Canada and India to peacefully forge new trade and economic relationships.

The U.S. joint attack with Israel on Iran is also a direct hit on the activities of the other members of the global hegemonic order. China and Russia are both aligned with Iran and predictably condemned the U.S. action, with China claiming the attack to be an attempt to overthrow “the legitimately elected authorities of sovereign states.” Nobody outside of China and Russia, masters of avoidance of legitimate democracy, could seriously claim that Iran operates anything other than an illegitimate democracy.

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Nothing is certain regarding the ultimate outcome of the Iran attacks. Not only is the Middle East a complex tangle of warring and economically conflicted nations, the situation is also subject to the unpredictable and often irrational turns in President Donald Trump’s decision-making. But if a new regime were to change and transform Iran into a peaceful nation, the existing power relationships in the region would begin to shift dramatically, with China and Russia sidelined from their current roles as prime supporters of Iran’s destabilizing and destructive presence in the Mideast. Just last month China was said to be near a deal to supply anti-ship missiles to Iran.

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In short, the three main hegemons still dominate the global game of power and control, with the United States retaining its position as the sole representative, at least so far, of a desirable world order that resembles the objectives established long ago under western democratic principles.

Unfortunately for Carney, the hegemonic structure he claims is in a state of rupture overshadowed his visit to India and his worthy attempt to forge new economic and political ties. Whatever the outcome of the Iran crisis, nothing should stand in the way of this Canadian attempt to link up with what is certain, in time, to become one of the great economic nations of the world.

Canada and India produced a multi-page summary of agreements and memorandums of understanding covering 54 mostly minor areas such as green energy, cultural ties and academic mobility pathways. Another joint statement included 60 paragraphs promising “institutional engagement” to support expanded bilateral energy trade, including in liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), crude oil, refined petroleum products, potash, and uranium supply. The biggest item appeared to be a $2.6-billion commercial agreement between Cameco Corp. and the Department of Atomic Energy for “long-term supply” of uranium for India’s civil nuclear energy generation and “clean energy transition.”

With plans to negotiate a free trade agreement by the end of 2026, Carney said the objective is to more than double Canada-India trade to $70 billion by 2030 — which sounds big but is actually an indication of the overall modesty of the Canada-India economic relationship. Canada’s merchandise exports to India last year totalled $3.9 billion, equal to about 0.5 per cent of Canada’s total exports. Imports from India, at $7 billion, equalled 0.9 per cent of total imports. Of $15.6 billion in trade in services, more than 90 per cent related to travel spending.

All of which is small change for Canada and India, and totally insignificant relative to the continuing battle for global hegemony. May the best hegemon win. Guess who?

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