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Terence Corcoran: EV charging? Fill ‘er up with more subsidies

Razzle-dazzle and policy confusion at the 2026 Canadian International AutoShow

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The 2026 Canadian International AutoShow opens today in Toronto with much media buzz surrounding electric vehicles. With more than two dozen EV models available for test drives, the buzz was enhanced over the past week by a flurry of Ottawa policy announcements.

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Spare some sympathy, then, for the writers who had to put together the official show program under deadlines that obviously fell long before the Mark Carney Liberals unveiled a batch of new EV handouts. In a short commentary on the EV market toward the end of the program, the writer complains about Canadian policy uncertainty. The main reason: Ottawa’s decision last year to stop giving drivers $5,000 rebates on new EV purchases. “There is no doubt that 2025 was a tough year for electric vehicles in Canada.” Under the rebate cutback, the zeitgeist at the 2026 show “may feel less EV-friendly.”

All that presumably changed last week when Prime Minister Carney released Ottawa’s revised centrally planned EV industrial strategy. Carney described it as a “new auto strategy that rewards the production of made-in-Canada vehicles and … positions Canada to become a global leader in electric vehicle (EV) production.” The objective is to increase EV sales in Canada to 75 per cent of total auto sales by 2035 and 90 per cent by 2040.

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The plan revives the $5,000 rebate on EVs with a price cap of $50,000, with no price cap on “Canadian-made” EVs. The rebate cost was set at $2.3 billion. Another $3 billion was allocated to help the auto industry “adapt, grow and diversify.” Another $1.5 billion through the Canadian Infrastructure Bank is intended to make it easier and more convenient for drivers to charge their EVs.

To help workers adjust to changes, $570 million will be allocated to provide employment and re-skilling assistance to 66,000 autoworkers. There were also hints that Ottawa might financially help China set up EV plants in Canada.

EVs received even more Carney publicity on Monday when it took three cabinet ministers to announce $84 million to subsidize 8,000 public EV chargers across the country — more than $10,000 per charger — most of them public chargers rather than private or industry stations. Of the $84 million, much of the money will go to charities, including $7.3 million to Pollution Probe Foundation’s plan to provide 495 charitable charging stations. Another $13 million of federal money will help “green fleet” transportation development and provide public education (i.e. propaganda) on the merits of EV ownership.

These numbers are merely short-term startup spending, trivial dollar figures in a multibillion-dollar EV charging project stretching out over the next 15 years. Long-run cost projections based on these new targets — 90 per cent of all vehicles sold to be EV by 2040 — don’t seem to be available. But they will be large.

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A 2024 paper produced by Dunsky Energy & Climate Advisors, a private consultancy dedicated to accelerating the clean-energy transition, estimated public EV charging infrastructure costs could run to $64 billion under then existing 2024 federal plans, with billions more to be spent by private homeowners and workplaces.

The total estimated cost of expanding Canada’s electricity grid capacity to provide 2.3 million EVs with charging ports by 2040 ranged from $26 billion to $228 billion, the values subject to major uncertainties.

All of these and other costs to provide electricity to EVs are backed by scores of activists, institutions and lobbying efforts. One of the leaders of the campaign is the Canadian Charging Infrastructure Council (CCIC), an assembly of corporations aimed at turning battery and charging capacity into a long-term multibillion-dollar industry.

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Formed last August, the CCIC has been knocking on doors in Ottawa to promote incentives and regulations that will drive public charging station growth. In a policy brief last October, the organization urged Ottawa not to weaken its EV targets. Success! Last week CCIC lauded the Carney government’s new mandate as a major step forward that “could unlock billions of dollars in charging investment if implemented fully.”

Which takes us back to the Toronto auto show, a razzle-dazzle 10-day event for consumers and industry officials surrounded by the latest and oldest models, from the new 2027 Chevy Bolt EV to the Serial-001 McLaren F1, said to be the greatest car of all time (not available for test drive}.

While the auto show vibe might be high, the background engine rumble suggests the industry needs to visit a national auto strategy repair shop. Speaking Thursday at a pre-show industry event, Toyota Canada CEO Cyril Dimitris said the whole industry “is navigating a period of unprecedented uncertainty.” Among the issues are “affordability pressures, regulatory change, evolving mandates, and trade uncertainty.”

Change is accelerating, said Dimitris, and predictability has become harder to come by. To deal with the complex environment, Toyota Canada aims to “engage constructively with the government. To focus on what is practical and achievable.” Unfortunately, when it comes to Canada’s centrally planned auto strategy, focus on the practical and achievable does not appear to be part of the Carney agenda.

• Email: tcorcoran@postmedia.com

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