The idea of sending the troops to invade and occupy Iran resurfaced in Washington in recent days, following the idea that emerged in the Trump era of maximum pressure on Iran. The idea of sending the US Army to fight another war abroad and expecting to have the upper hand is an outdated view of war and of modern armies’ capabilities.

Although the US has the most powerful armed forces in the world in terms of firepower, surveillance, networking and communications, it does not mean that it can send its troops to a foreign country such as Iran and occupy it without encountering many obstacles. The Trump administration wanted to send troops to the region to destroy the Iranian infrastructure. Still, it knew that such a step would have a negative reaction in the region and internationally. The US can win the war against Iran, but it may lose the peace.

When U.S. warplanes first hit their targets inside Iran, the primary goal would be to shock and destroy—meaning thousands of guided bombs and thousands of missiles would be detonated in a attempt to annihilate whatever pieces of Iran’s air defenses and parts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that Washington and its allies are looking to destroy. In theory, the U.S. should have the better of it. However, it’s important to keep in mind that Iran is not an easy-to-overrun country like Afghanistan was in 2001 or Iraq in 2003. Iran is a sizeable nation, made up of a variety of different ecosystems and containing rich political, social and cultural systems that, though contested by the population, have evolved to such a degree that they can withstand an immense amount of outside pressure and remain intact. The IRGC, the Basij and the regular armed forces may be completely disrupted and annihilated as organised forces, but they will break up and regroup into guerrilla and terrorist organisations, and begin to launch cyber attacks as part of a multi-pronged campaign that was planned for many years. The U.S. may win the first battle, but it will lose the war.

There are many more factors to consider. An attack on Iran won’t stay within its borders. “In the case of an attack on Iran, it won’t be only Iran that will burn,” said an experienced senior official in a long conversation late into the night. In recent years, the regime in Iran has........

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