The US military involvement in the ongoing fighting in Iran is not limited to that country. US efforts pouring into the conflict will likely be greeted by China seeking to take advantage of the US’s distraction to expand its influence in the region and to assert itself as a major global actor. In this brief, we argue that the US will continue to allow the conflict in Iran to undermine US influence in a critical region of the world, even as China is afforded new opportunities to expand its influence in the Indo-Pacific. This is not a new US foreign policy. The US’s tendency to overcommit in certain regions of the world inevitably leads to an undermining of US influence in other regions.

The US military is at a breaking point, and it’s being felt all the way over in the Indo–Pacific. Resources meant for confronting aggressors and supporting US allies are being diverted to Iran. THAAD and Patriot missile defence batteries, meant to guard against North Korean ballistic missiles, have been transferred to other locations around the world. The US’s most elite fighting troops  Marines based in Japan, are being pulled from their posts to support other military operations. Aircraft carrier strike groups meant to patrol the waters of the Western Pacific are being redeployed on “tailored” missions to the Middle East. The US military is running critically short of ammunition, just as China is rapidly modernising its own military.  Seoul and Tokyo are closely watching U.S. deliberations on its post-Iraq future, fearing that a quick withdrawal from the Middle East could undermine Washington’s ability to handle security threats in the Indo-Pacific region.

U.S. strategy in the Iran conflict represents a new chapter in a pernicious strategic habit of the United States of embarking in limited portions in protracted conflicts in the Middle East. Our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan started as modest endeavours with defined objectives and limited force profiles, but escalated into........

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