Trump’s threatened attack on Iran would be the first in history to target a nation for merely threatening to shut the Strait of Hormuz, an 80-mile-wide waterway between Iran and Oman that is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Some 20% of the world’s oil supply, including 100% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports, passes through the Strait. China, India, Japan, and South Korea, all major oil consumers, also rely on the 75-mile-wide passage. The Strait is an important source of leverage for Iran, which has threatened to shut the corridor in the past. With its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) equipped with long-range missiles, mines and fast-attack craft, Iran is well-positioned to do so. Trump’s tactic represents a break from the crisis management model that the US has used to address threats to Hormuz in the past.

US naval units are assigned the task of preventing vessels from entering or departing from the narrow waterway, as well as from intercepting ships which have paid a toll to Iran to be coated with a protective wrap to facilitate the deployment of sea mines. Washington has portrayed Sunday’s attack as a defensive measure, aiming at «Iranian attempts at extortion». However, the operation is an act of war under the principles of customarily defined international law that does not require the approval of the United Nations. Iran’s response to what it sees as an American act of aggression will more likely be asymmetrical than a conventional war, placing the lives of US military personnel in greater jeopardy than usual in a militarised zone in which the potential for miscalculation is extremely high.

The potential for immediate military confrontation is real. Iran may refuse to comply with a naval blockade, reverting to its........

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