The South China Sea remains a major flashpoint that tests ASEAN’s cohesion and relevance as a regional security actor, with ongoing naval and coast-guard confrontations risking miscalculation and undermining the rules-based order that Singapore depends on for its trade and strategic resilience. 

Internal divisions among ASEAN members have stalled progress on a binding Code of Conduct with China; Singapore can help by promoting shared principles such as freedom of navigation, non-militarisation and peaceful dispute settlement under international law. 

To remain credible, ASEAN needs stronger collective maritime governance, practical cooperation (joint patrols, surveillance and incident response) and partnerships with external actors, with Singapore positioned to act as agenda-setter, mediator and champion of a stable, open maritime order.

The South China Sea is likely to remain a contentious area in the region until 2026 and beyond. Naval confrontations, coast guard confrontations and associated diplomatic confrontations are likely to continue to test the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and undermine its credibility as a cohesive regional body. The South China Sea issue is, in essence, a test of the relevance of ASEAN in the security architecture of Asia today. Singapore will be deeply sensitive to any deterioration of ASEAN’s internal cohesion and to any weakening of ASEAN’s external role. A weakening of ASEAN would expose and marginalise Singapore in the matters of greatest importance to both regional and global parties. In essence, the rules-based-order of today, as championed by Singapore, must remain credible.

The South China Sea is in the heart of Asia, and is a critical body of water for the economic development of Asia. About a third of the world’s shipping traffic passes through the South China Sea. For a city-state such as Singapore, whose total trade volume exceeds three times the country’s Gross........

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