Shift from Values-Based to Transactional Relations — If the far-right AfD comes to power in Germany, Indonesia should move from a values-driven, multilateral partnership to a more pragmatic, transactional approach focused on trade, investment, and concrete outcomes.

Impact on Trade, Investment & Climate — German companies in Indonesia may remain in the short term, but long-term uncertainty could arise from reduced German influence in the EU, weaker support for sustainability standards, and a potential slowdown in green financing and energy transition projects.

Strategic Adaptation Needed — Indonesia should maintain diplomatic engagement, seek alternative climate funding from multilateral banks and private investors, and position itself as a stable, predictable partner while preparing for reduced German/EU support on climate, security, and Indo-Pacific strategy.

This essay analyses how Indonesia could deal with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) potentially rising to power. It is strategic in nature and attempts to transform the existing values-based, multilateral bilateral relationship with Germany into a more transactional relationship and assess the implications that Indonesia could face in view of Germany’s waning influence in the EU and how that would, in turn, affect CEPA implementation between the two countries.

In opposition, the AfD have claimed to be supporters of multilateralism and has accused other EU parties of undermining fundamental European cooperative values. But if Germany’s influence in the EU declines, it will be very difficult for the AfD to put this into practice. Under the current administration, Germany has been Indonesia’s most influential European partner, and it continues to advocate ASEAN centrality, democratic governance and multilateral cooperation. These values are far removed from those advocated by the AfD, and........

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