A joint China–Indonesia naval exercise conducted in waters east of Taiwan has intensified regional tensions, with Beijing using it to normalise PLA Navy presence beyond the first island chain while Taiwan views it as part of a broader encirclement strategy. 

Indonesia faces a foreign-policy dilemma: participation risks being interpreted as tacit support for China’s maritime claims, potentially complicating its defence ties with the United States and undermining its long-standing non-aligned stance and strategic autonomy. 

The exercise contributes to a shifting Indo-Pacific balance that is prompting other regional actors to strengthen their own security cooperation, highlighting the need for clearer Indonesian and ASEAN strategic communication, maritime confidence-building measures, and careful management of great-power rivalry to preserve an open, rules-based maritime order.

A recent naval exercise conducted by China and Indonesia in the waters east of Taiwan, in a region of increasing strategic importance to China, exposed the rising tensions between China and Taiwan, as well as the deepening divide in the Indo-Pacific region. Indonesia has portrayed the exercise as routine, while Beijing has a different agenda for its military.

The engagement of a foreign navy in the region, as China is increasing its military presence in the East China Sea, which Beijing claims as its own, marks a significant turning point in the power shift in the region. The exercises, which were conducted in the East China Sea, an area that China is increasingly trying to claim as its own, are part of Beijing’s attempts to normalise the presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) beyond the first island chain. Taiwan, increasingly isolated in the region, is extremely concerned about the development, as it sees it as part of a broader strategy by Beijing to encircle the island.

The naval exercise also poses several challenges for Indonesia’s foreign........

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