The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, long a rare example of durable cooperation between India and Pakistan, is under unprecedented strain after India placed it “in abeyance” and signaled intent to restrict water flows.

Water is shifting from a technical resource managed through institutions into a geopolitical instrument, complicated by upstream infrastructure, climate change, and growing domestic demand on both sides.

The continuation of Neutral Expert proceedings despite India’s non-participation highlights both the resilience of treaty-based mechanisms and the wider risk that eroding confidence in the framework could increase strategic instability in South Asia.

For more than six decades, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has been one of the world’s most durable examples of cooperation between adversarial neighbors. Signed in 1960 under World Bank facilitation, the treaty survived wars, military crises, diplomatic breakdowns, and decades of political mistrust between India and Pakistan. While bilateral relations repeatedly deteriorated, the treaty continued to provide a predictable legal and institutional framework for managing one of South Asia’s most critical shared resources. Today, that framework faces its greatest test.

Recent statements by India’s Water Minister C. R. Patil that India intends to ensure “not a single drop” of water reaches Pakistan have intensified concerns over the future of bilateral water cooperation. The remarks followed India’s decision in 2025 to place the treaty “in abeyance” after the Pahalgam attack, a move Pakistan argues has no basis in the treaty or international treaty law. India, however, maintains that the changing security environment requires a reassessment of existing arrangements.

Regardless of the competing legal interpretations, the dispute reflects a broader strategic shift. Water is no longer viewed solely as a shared natural resource governed through technical cooperation. It is increasingly becoming part of the wider geopolitical competition between two nuclear-armed neighbors. That evolution carries implications not only for South Asia but also for the credibility of international treaty-based governance.

The Treaty Under Unprecedented Strain

The Indus Waters Treaty allocated the waters of six rivers between India and Pakistan while establishing institutions designed to resolve disputes before they escalated into political crises. Through the Permanent Indus Commission, Neutral Expert procedures, and arbitration mechanisms, the agreement created a rules-based system that functioned even when diplomatic engagement was minimal. Its greatest strength was never political goodwill but institutional predictability.

Today, that........

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