With control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs and their personal futures at stake, the 470 members of the House and Senate facing the voters in November are laser-focused on the upcoming midterm elections. President Donald Trump has an obvious interest in the outcome and has promised to devote as much time and energy to Republican candidates in this final federal election of his presidency as he did for himself in 2024. But Trump understands the long sweep of history and the near-inevitable rise of the out-of-power party two years after presidential elections. Whether he admits it or not, he has surely accepted that, no matter how unpopular they remain, Democrats stand as the odds-on favorites to overcome the GOP’s razor-thin majority and seize control of the House.

The overarching question, then, is how damaging the loss of the House and/or the Senate would be to Trump and the last two years of his presidency.

Democrats Will Rinse and Repeat

Let’s start with the widely accepted premise that Democrats freshly in charge of the House will revert to their tactics of Trump’s first term and take a third bite of the impeachment apple. Remembering that grounds for impeaching a president are essentially whatever the House says they are, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) or whoever is elected Speaker of the House can pick from a long menu of his party’s grievances. The problem is that Trump will not be up for re-election. Never in memory has the out party devoted its primary attention to a lame-duck president. To undertake impeachment once more will only reaffirm to voters that........

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