The Iran War has inflicted heavy economic damage on Iran, cost the Pentagon tens of billions, closed the Strait of Hormuz and driven up global energy, food and transport prices, with the IMF warning of a possible recession if fighting continues.

Instead of quick regime change, the conflict has reopened Yemen’s war, left an unstable vacuum in Iraq after U.S. withdrawal, and failed to eliminate Hezbollah or Iranian influence in Lebanon and Syria, expanding the “axis of resistance” rather than collapsing it.

The author argues that direct military pressure has strengthened resistance and that only a ceasefire, a political settlement with Iran and engagement with its regional allies can dissolve the axis more effectively than further force.

The Iran War has claimed thousands of lives, most of them in Iran itself. The war has cost Iran as much as $300 billion in economic damage. For its part, the Pentagon spent nearly $44 billion through mid-September to wreak that amount of havoc. For advocates of the war—but no one else—that’s a good return on investment.

Because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in shipments of oil and gas, people all over the world have experienced the war through increased prices for energy, transportation, and food. The ripple effects through the global economy of record high prices for diesel have been devastating for farmers, truckers, and the mining sector. Back in August, the International Monetary Fund warned that the war, if it continues, could trigger a global economic recession.

And the war is continuing—even though Iran and its adversaries have at least temporarily stepped back from direct attacks and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to a certain extent (Iranian shipments excluded). At the UN General Assembly last month, Donald Trump promised (yet again) that he would annihilate Iran if the country doesn’t agree to some kind of peace deal. Despite the fact that the Iranian economy is reeling as a result of war and sanctions, which the government in Tehran is now acknowledging, Iranian leaders have pledged not to surrender.

As if these effects aren’t enough, the Iran War is also setting into motion a number of other geopolitical transformations—in Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, the Gulf states, and even further afield. Trump and his Israeli partner-in-crime Benjamin Netanyahu expected a quick war, a tidy regime change in Tehran, and the collapse of its “axis of resistance.”

Instead they now face a Pandora’s boxful of unintended consequences.

Not far from the Strait of Hormuz, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, lies Bab al-Mandab. This chokepoint, which controls traffic in and out of the Red Sea and the Suez Canal at its northernmost point, is responsible for 10 percent of global trade. During the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia redirected the flow of its oil westward through a pipeline to its Red Sea ports, thus increasing the importance of Bab al-Mandab.

But........

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