The author reads Witkoff and Kushner’s back-to-back visits to Putin and Zelenskyy, plus Trump’s “imminent ceasefire” line, as a possible swap: Ukraine makes big concessions so Moscow eases help to Iran in the U.S. war. Past Trump pressure—limits on Ukraine’s forces, land Russia has not won, less Western arms—is cited. Biden, the piece says, would not trade a democracy-leaning state for a kleptocracy; Trump is called soft on autocrats and on Putin.

Direct U.S. weapons grants are said to have shrunk in favor of sales to Europe. Remaining leverage: targeting intelligence and scarce air- and missile-defense interceptors. PATRIOT production in Ukraine is long-term; stocks are tight because of the Iran war and other theaters (Europe, Taiwan).

The Iran campaign is framed as a failed decapitation that left Hormuz more closed, with a munitions pinch, then blockade, sanctions, and costly escorts—unlikely to reopen the strait. Cutting Russian (and maybe Chinese) aid to Tehran might help a squeeze strategy only at the margin; the author still fears Kyiv could be traded for that slim chance.

A visit by perennial Trump administration negotiators Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, followed immediately by one to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Donald Trump’s claim that a ceasefire in that war is imminent might make critics suspicious of another administration........

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