As U.S.–Iran negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program continue under the shadow of possible military action, both Washington and Tehran must weigh carefully the potentially catastrophic regional consequences of failure.

If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced President Trump during their recent meeting that now is the ideal moment to attack Iran — citing Tehran’s weakened proxies and internal turmoil as an opportunity to trigger regime change — they would both be gravely mistaken.

Every peaceful avenue must be exhausted to prevent war. There would be no winners — only prolonged regional instability and horrific cycles of violence.

The Risk of Regional Escalation

A U.S. attack on Iran would carry a high probability of regional war.

Iran has already vowed to strike American bases and Israel in retaliation. Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations would face missile attacks, jeopardizing their internal stability. Turkey and Saudi Arabia would be forced to navigate the tension between their security partnerships with Washington and the need to preserve regional equilibrium. Global energy markets would convulse.

The illusion that a limited strike could remain limited is dangerously naive.

Iran’s Retaliatory Options

Although Iran’s proxy network has been degraded, and internal unrest and economic distress constrain its options, Tehran still retains formidable retaliatory capabilities. An all-out response could threaten regime survival, so Iran would likely calibrate its retaliation to demonstrate resolve while avoiding a war it cannot win outright.

Nevertheless, Iran possesses multiple means of retaliation:

Missile and Drone Strikes on U.S. BasesIran could launch ballistic missiles and drones at American installations across the Persian Gulf, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which it struck in June........

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