The author says U.S.–Pakistan ties are trying to move beyond counterterrorism. A February 2026 USTR docket on a plurilateral critical-minerals deal is the hook. 2025 two-way goods and services trade: about $11.5 billion ( 14%); Dar aims at $20 billion in five years—still far smaller than Pakistan–China trade. SBP: ICT services exports $3.8 billion in FY2025 ( 18.3%).

Minerals are the sharp edge (copper, iron, coal); Reko Diq is the test—capital and federal ambition vs. Balochistan politics, security, and locals. Security remains the old coin: March 2025 handover of ISIS-K suspect Sharifullah (Abbey Gate); August 2026 CT dialogue on ISIS-K, AQ, TTP, BLA. Islamabad cites 90,000-plus deaths and $150 billion-plus in CT costs.

China/CPEC is the omitted tension: Washington wants mineral supply chains less China-tied; Pakistan is courting both. 2026 mediation with the U.S., Iran, and the Gulf is called secondary. Past “broader” phases faded when the security rationale did. This time U.S. supply-chain need may last; the open question is investment, not more MOUs.

For much of the past two decades, Washington’s interest in Pakistan began and ended with counterterrorism. That’s changing. In February 2026, the Office of the US Trade Representative opened a public docket for a proposed “Plurilateral........

© Eurasia Review