In 2026, Chinese import growth will continue to expand, deepen and diversify, despite the US-led tariff wars.

When I began to spend more time in China in the early 2000s, the ultimate trade event was the Canton Fair (China Import and Export Fair). Fast forward to last November, the 8th China International Import Expo wrapped up in Shanghai after six bustling days, hosting participants from 155 countries, regions, and international organizations. The expo generated an intended transaction value of $83.49 billion — up 4.4 percent from the previous edition — a new record.

The coupling of the Canton Fair with the Shanghai Fair tells the story of the increasing importance of imports.

For a decade, global economic prospects have taken heavy hits, due mainly to US-led trade wars. So, how will Chinese imports fare in 2026 and beyond?

When China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, this marked a major global shift. As tariff barriers were lowered and quotas reduced, growth was also spurred in imports of commodities, machinery, vehicles, and intermediate goods from developed markets like the EU, U.S., and Japan. 

In the process, China became integrated into global supply chains, especially for manufacturing inputs and high-tech components.

In the 2010s, the Chinese consumption market deepened as rapidly-rising incomes and fast-paced urbanization fueled consumer goods imports, including luxury items, auto parts, electronics, and food products. To support the modernization in the colossal economy, China also invested heavily in infrastructure imports, such as energy equipment,........

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