The Persian Gulf is currently a landscape of high-stakes brinkmanship. As of February 2026, the rhetoric between Washington and Tehran has reached a fever pitch. President Donald Trump has signaled a “locked and loaded” posture, citing concerns over Iranian domestic unrest and regional influence. In response, Tehran has revived its most potent economic threat: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

For the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain—this is not just a political crisis. It is a fundamental threat to their economic survival and their ambitious plans for a post-oil future.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most vital energy artery. Approximately 20% of global seaborne oil passes through this narrow waterway. For Gulf nations, it is the primary exit for their wealth.

If Iran follows through on threats to mine or block the Strait, the economic impact would be immediate. Analysts suggest oil prices could surge past $120 per barrel. While high prices usually benefit exporters, a........

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