Tensions Flicker Into Flame, Lapping Across The Middle East – OpEd
Netanyahu’s recent Oval Office visit produced no visible diplomatic gains, while Israeli officials warn of depleting missile-intercept inventories and growing vulnerability to future Iranian ballistic-missile attacks, signaling strategic overstretch.
Escalation is spreading across multiple fronts: Yemen’s “siege-for-siege” actions and strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities have drawn Riyadh deeper into conflict; U.S.-Saudi airstrikes on Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Units prompted Iranian missile launches on American bases in Jordan; and a Ukrainian drone strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea is viewed by some as evidence that the Ukraine and Middle East wars are merging.
The author argues Trump lacks viable military solutions, faces growing regional instability that risks uncontrolled escalation, and may be susceptible to shifting domestic PR narratives (including a high-profile pivot by influencer Laura Loomer) that reframe Ukraine as a potential “win” amid setbacks elsewhere.
The silence surrounding the outcome to the Netanyahu meeting last week in the Oval Office speaks for itself. No American government official came to the airport to receive him, and no red carpet was laid out for him. The visit bombed. Israel is adrift – with its ‘Greater Israel’ strategy now bleeding, for lack both of troops and of coherence.
Former IDF Ombudsman Maj. Gen. Yitzak Brik predicts (Ma’ariv, 26 July), that the crisis engulfing the Israeli intercept inventory “is only the prelude to the catastrophe that is looming over us” –
“In the coming wars with Iran, the threat will increase tenfold to the point of a complete loss of the ability to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles. These missiles are expected to hit us: in population centers, strategic targets, production and economic infrastructure, science and technology institutes, educational institutions, hospitals and vital industries, and completely crush us”.
Trump – finally, it seems – understands that the war which he started in order to crush Iran has flipped – to destroying him. There is effectively no military solution available beyond stopping digging the hole that he is in still deeper.
Meanwhile, Iran is not allowing him to continue his tactical cycle of initiating kinetic war (ostensibly to pressure Iran), and then (on succeeding Mondays) to switch to talk of ‘imminent deals’ in order to manipulate oil markets and stock prices. Last Monday, a ‘short dump’ into the market knocked the price of Brent down a full 7.7%.
Iran, furthermore, intends to shape the tempo of the conflict, which (anyway) is set to escalate because of U.S. efforts to extend encircling pressures such that the U.S. ostensibly can coerce Iran into accepting a dictated ‘peace’.
But instead of adding pressure on Iran, Trump’s strategy is setting the region aflame, whilst inviting risk of uncontrolled........
