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Braid: How separatism gets on the referendum while pro-Canada question misses out

No government but Quebec’s has ever sponsored a referendum on separation

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Alberta referendum questions are complicated — by design.

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Premier Danielle Smith is “flooding the zone,” as they say in football.

Smith and company are trying to muffle the separatist pitch in a crowd of nine separate questions about immigration, health benefits and constitutional issues such as getting rid of the “unelected Senate.”

Little noticed is a startling new point.

The question raised by separatist Mitch Sylvestre — “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a province of Canada to become an independent state?” — will be part of the government’s referendum package.

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Smith has said as much. Her office confirms it. Any approved citizen referendum, including on coal, will get the same formal status.

(Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian petition is excluded. We’ll get to that.)

If the separatists get their 177,000 signatures, which isn’t entirely certain, a Canadian first is coming on Oct. 19.

No government but Quebec’s has ever sponsored a referendum on separation.

Of course, Smith and crew could allow the separatist question to go ahead on a separate ballot.

But there’s shrewd calculation behind making the separatist question just one of the gang.

People will vote on all the powers Smith hopes to take from Ottawa, then come to the one demanding separation. By that point they’ve been tenderized by Smith’s plea for sovereignty within a united Canada.

New polling from Leger shows 70 per cent of Albertans solidly in favour of Confederation. The separatists seem stuck around that losing number. The same numbers repeat themselves, poll after poll.

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Andrew Enns of Leger says, “the separatists have been very good at getting attention, but not so effective at building support.”

Smith’s people say she’s the main reason that’s happening.

The premier won another major concession last week, when Ottawa agreed that only the province will assess projects within Alberta’s borders.

This sets aside a major grievance about the hated Impact Assessment Act, which claimed authority over the smallest local projects.

The Albertans feel even an oilsands project can now be built without federal environmental approval.

For transborder projects of national importance, Ottawa’s Bill 5 allows rushed federal approvals.

Prime Minister Mark Carney doesn’t repeal old laws like Bill C-69 (Impact Assessment). That would infuriate some of his Liberal base. But he has effectively neutered the worst legislation, to Alberta’s advantage.

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And what happens to Thomas Lukaszuk’s pro-Canada question — the one that got 456,000 signatures?

It won’t go on the government ballot, despite being formally approved for months.

A pro-Canada question with enormous public backing is out, but a dubious separatist question is in.

The quirky reason is that Lukaszuk checked the box called “legislative or policy proposal” on his application.

He never wanted a referendum, but rather a vote in the legislature firmly committing the government to federalism.

And that’s likely what he’ll get.

The legislature recently formed a six-member panel (four UCP, two NDP) to review the question.

The committee must be done by June 7 — probably after the legislature rises for the summer.

That means it could not be submitted until the house sits again in fall.

The report probably would not see the light of day until after the Oct. 19 referendum.

By that time, separatism will almost certainly be a dead issue.

Eventually, what Lukaszuk may get for all his effort is a legislature vote on a question such as: “Do you want a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada?”

The UCP members will yawn, agree, and that will be it.

All this is murky beyond measure.

That’s exactly how the government wants it.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

X and Bluesky: @DonBraid

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