Varcoe: 'We need to get this across the goal line' — Cenovus CEO hopeful of deal on pivotal carbon capture project 'If we get the regulatory policy framework right ... that will put us in a position where we can commit barrels to that pipeline,' said Jon McKenzie
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Varcoe: 'We need to get this across the goal line' — Cenovus CEO hopeful of deal on pivotal carbon capture project
'If we get the regulatory policy framework right ... that will put us in a position where we can commit barrels to that pipeline,' said Jon McKenzie
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Negotiations between Ottawa, Alberta and major oilsands producers on a massive carbon capture project are now two weeks beyond an initial deadline. An agreement on carbon pricing between the two levels of government is also past the April 1 target date.
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Yet, the head of Cenovus Energy, who is also chair of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), remains hopeful.
And the entire industry, along with many groups in Canada, are waiting to see if the promise of a ”grand bargain” becomes a reality, and a new oil pipeline and carbon capture network are eventually built.
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“I wouldn’t describe myself as confident — I’m hopeful,” said Jon McKenzie, chief executive of Cenovus Energy, one of five members of the Oil Sands Alliance, which has proposed building a $16.5-billion carbon capture network in northern Alberta.
“This is something that we need to do as a country, and we need to get this across the goal line, and we need to get this debate behind us, and we need to start getting things built.”
As part of an energy memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached between the Carney and Smith governments in November, the two sides agreed to negotiate on several key policies.
It supported the idea of a “grand bargain,” including developing a new oil pipeline to the West Coast, which has been pitched by Alberta. But it is conditional on the proposed Pathways carbon capture network being developed, with a CO2 pipeline built between oilsands facilities that connects to an underground storage hub near Cold Lake.
The two governments also pledged to reach an agreement on industrial carbon pricing in the province; it calls for the carbon price under Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) system to reach a minimum effective rate of $130 per tonne, although no timeline was set on when it would need to be reached.
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The deadline on carbon pricing agreement, and a trilateral MOU between the Oil Sands Alliance and both levels of government, was initially set for the beginning of this month.
(Two other key agreements on methane reduction and reforming the impact assessment process for projects were reached before the April 1 deadline).
McKenzie said the industry needs to remain competitive in being able to attract capital. Canada, the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, faces an industrial carbon tax that other nations don’t place on their industry, while the country also needs to see regulatory reform, he said while attending the annual BMO CAPP Energy Symposium in Toronto.
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“There’s very little doubt in my mind that without fundamental policy and regulatory overhaul and reform, it’s going to be very difficult for industry to grow and backstop that (proposed West Coast) pipeline,” McKenzie said in an interview.
“But if we get the regulatory policy framework right . . . that will put us in a position where we can commit barrels to that pipeline.”
Members of the Oil Sands Alliance have been working on the Pathways project since at least 2021, but the group has not given it the green light. The companies have said the federal and provincial governments need to provide more support for such an expensive decarbonization development to proceed.
The federal government has an investment tax credit that would cover up to half of the capital costs for the development. The UCP government has created a program that would provide a 12 per cent grant to carbon capture developments in Alberta.
The alliance has said those aren’t enough, given the large expenditures involved.
“We have an understanding of what it would take, but we haven’t reached agreement on a trilateral basis,” McKenzie said, noting the group previously said it needs about 75 per cent of capital costs and 50 to 60 per cent of operating costs covered by government.
Given the complexity of the MOU and the fact at least four major agreements had to be reached within a four-month timeline, it’s not surprising that the most complex parts are still being discussed.
“The MOU was important because it kind of reset the relationship between Alberta and the federal government,” said BMO Capital Markets analyst Randy Ollenberger.
“But I do get a bit of a sense of disappointment, discouragement . . . that maybe we’re not going to see the MOU actually come to a meaningful end point.”
Much has changed since the deal was signed, including the war in the Middle East and a spike in oil prices, although benchmark U.S. crude closed Tuesday at US$92.11 a barrel, down almost eight per cent. The conflict has also increased concerns surrounding security of global energy supplies.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked if these new circumstances have changed views on the Pathways project and if it still makes sense for all sides.
“What’s happened, in many respects, has reinforced the motivations on all aspects of the agreement. It’s reinforced the importance of energy security here in Canada, but also in our potential partners, including very much in Asia. So there’s even more interest in what the Alberta agreement could unlock,” he said.
“We’re making good progress.”
Likewise, Alberta Energy Minister Brian Jean sounded hopeful when asked about the industrial carbon price discussions.
“This is a long, complicated process,” Jean said. “I’m very optimistic. I think the MOU is moving ahead very well.”
Tamarack Valley Energy CEO Brian Schmidt noted Western Canada will run out of spare pipeline capacity later this year or in 2027; plans for a new West Coast line would enhance the country’s ability to export oil to the world in the future.
“We’ve just got to make this thing competitive,” Schmidt said.
“The thing that we got to do is figure this out — so we can get these projects back on the (front) burner.”
Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.
cvarcoe@postmedia.com
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