PAKISTAN has long viewed the sudden collapse of the Iranian regime as a national security threat. That assessment, which has been held quietly for years, acquired fresh urgency with the outbreak of the Gulf conflict. Pakistan is already confronting heightened militancy and terrorism in its western regions, where groups such as the TTP and BLA operate from sanctuaries in Afghanistan. In our worst-case calculations, a sudden power vacuum in Tehran would risk unleashing a flood of advanced Iranian weapons — particularly kamikaze drones — into these networks.

Field Marshal Asim Munir met President Donald Trump last year in June, during the height of the 12-day war with Iran, and again in September. Iran featured explicitly in their discussions, with Trump publicly noting that Pakistan “knows Iran very well, better than most”. These meetings gave Islamabad insight into the Trump administration’s thinking on Iran while also conveying Pakistan’s concerns to him.

The US-Israel campaign that began on Feb 28, 2026, opened with heavy decapitation strikes and deeper attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites. Israel saw the moment as a historic opportunity to eliminate what it regards as an existential threat. Reports........

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