WHAT a difference a year makes. 2025 has not merely been eventful, it has been transformative. Many of us will be ending the year with firm beliefs that we may not have held at its outset. Rarely does a calendar year precipitate such fundamental reorientation. The outlook, unfortunately, is bleak. But the new year resolution is clear: accept, adapt, strive to survive.

Here are five things I believe at year end, that I didn’t 12 months ago.

1.5 is dead: As a mother with a perceived obligation toward future generations, I clung to my climate optimism as long as I could. But the UN Environment Programme this year confirmed that there is no plausible pathway to keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Despite talk of greenhouse gas emissions peaking, all credible models point to warming of between 2.6°C to 3.3°C this century if current climate policies persist. If G20 countries meet net zero targets by 2050, and devastating floods, droughts and hurricanes force a rethink among climate deniers, the best we can do now is 1.8-2.3°C — still catastrophic. In 2026, expect talk of climate adaptation to discreetly supplant mitigation ambitions.

A third world war is a real prospect, not a looming threat: Russian........

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