The latest U.S.-Iran strikes have turned the four possible futures of Hormuz from strategic theory into an urgent choice between negotiation, devastating war, prolonged economic strangulation and a regional settlement.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has entered a new and far more dangerous phase. What only days ago remained a tense diplomatic standoff has now descended into a violent cycle of American strikes and Iranian retaliation. The United States has attacked scores of Iranian military targets along the coast, while Tehran has fired missiles and drones at American-linked military facilities across the Middle East. The fragile peace arrangement reached in June is now close to collapse.

Freedom of navigation gives Washington a legitimate international interest in safe passage, but it does not automatically make the U.S. Navy the administrator or political manager of the Strait.

Freedom of navigation gives Washington a legitimate international interest in safe passage, but it does not automatically make the U.S. Navy the administrator or political manager of the Strait.

The latest developments make one reality impossible to ignore: the four scenarios facing Washington and Tehran are no longer academic possibilities.

The first scenario is a return to the MoU. Washington and Tehran could suspend military operations, restore the 60-day diplomatic process and resume negotiations. Iran would immediately halt attacks on commercial vessels and guarantee safe passage, while the United States would stop further strikes and withdraw its threats against Iranian civilian-supporting infrastructure.

But a simple return to the MoU may no longer be enough. The original arrangement contained an unresolved Hormuz question. Its relevant provision envisaged Iran and Oman discussing the future administration and maritime services of the Strait during the interim period, with other Persian Gulf littoral states involved and the sovereign rights of coastal states recognised.

Instead of allowing that process to mature, an........

© Daily Times