A naval blockade of Iran ordered by President Donald Trump has begun after the U.S. and Iran failed to come to an agreement during direct peace talks in Pakistan over the weekend. The two-week cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran is holding, it’s still possible both sides could reach a deal, and there’s talk of another round of negotiations this week. In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed; and with blockade preventing the shipment of Iran’s oil, there is still no end in sight for the global energy crisis. Below is the latest on the risky new blockade, the state of negotiations, and what might happen next.

Trump and other U.S. officials keep saying that there may be another round of direct talks soon, Iran reportedly sent a counteroffer on Monday (which was promptly rejected), and Pakistan has offered to host the negotiations again, but we’re now waiting to see if a meeting or some other substantive reason to extend the cease-fire materializes.

There’s no cease-fire in the slop war

If the regime falls, rival intelligence agencies will be parachuting into Tehran in a cutthroat race to capture their social media guy—the Wernher von Braun of wartime posting. https://t.co/VRZWmeTlhO— Aron Lund (@aronlund) April 14, 2026

If the regime falls, rival intelligence agencies will be parachuting into Tehran in a cutthroat race to capture their social media guy—the Wernher von Braun of wartime posting. https://t.co/VRZWmeTlhO

More on the IRGC’s content creators here.

Trump again says the war is ‘close to over’

On Fox News on Tuesday night:

Bartiromo: Is this war over?Trump: I think it’s close to over, yeah. I think they want to make a deal very badly. pic.twitter.com/wtfI57XVnI— Acyn (@Acyn) April 15, 2026

Bartiromo: Is this war over?Trump: I think it’s close to over, yeah. I think they want to make a deal very badly. pic.twitter.com/wtfI57XVnI

Did 20 ships really transit the strait?

Someone who watches closely contradicts the U.S. official who claimed there was an uptick in traffic over the past day:

There is no indication of 20 ships transiting through the International Strait over the last 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/hqUhEE79X2— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) April 14, 2026

There is no indication of 20 ships transiting through the International Strait over the last 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/hqUhEE79X2

A U.S. destroyer turned back two oil tankers leaving Iran

A U.S. official who spoke with Reuters offered more detail about two of the six ships which have been turned around by the U.S. Navy amid the new blockade:

A U.S. destroyer interdicted ​two oil tankers attempting to leave Iran on Tuesday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade went into ‌effect, and instructed them to turn around, a U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The ships had left Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman and were contacted by the warship via radio communication, the official said. It was unclear whether any further warnings were given. …Experts are cautious. Noam Raydan at The Washington Institute ​for Near East Policy said tracking data did show one tanker making a U-turn after the start of the blockade but cautioned that a lot of ships working with Iranian oil go dark. “We just don’t know yet how effective it is. We are still in day two,” Raydan said.

A U.S. destroyer interdicted ​two oil tankers attempting to leave Iran on Tuesday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump’s blockade went into ‌effect, and instructed them to turn around, a U.S. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The ships had left Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman and were contacted by the warship via radio communication, the official said. It was unclear whether any further warnings were given. …

Experts are cautious. Noam Raydan at The Washington Institute ​for Near East Policy said tracking data did show one tanker making a U-turn after the start of the blockade but cautioned that a lot of ships working with Iranian oil go dark. “We just don’t know yet how effective it is. We are still in day two,” Raydan said.

Ghalibaf is not Iran’s leader

Vance also said on Tuesday night that he was sitting across from “the person who is effectively running Iran” — ie Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf — at the direct talks in Pakistan. INSS’s Danny Citrinowicz explains why that’s incorrect:

I understand the desire to frame recent developments as a shift within the Iranian regime, or to suggest that the U.S. negotiated with Iran’s “top decision-maker.” But that’s simply not the reality. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is a senior figure, but he is not the one who truly holds power in Iran. Real authority lies with Mojtaba Khamenei, alongside the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a small circle of senior security figures closely tied to the Supreme Leader’s office. Ghalibaf is a controversial and deeply corrupted figure, but he remains committed to the IRGC and the survival of the regime. At most, he would have come to any engagement with clearly defined limits set in Tehran. He is neither empowered nor inclined to compromise on core strategic issues. The broader issue goes far beyond Ghalibaf. Tehran currently sees itself as being in a position of strength. As a result, it has little incentive to make meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is not going to give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, or its regional proxy network, regardless of who is formally involved in talks. Whether this narrative is meant to elevate or undermine Ghalibaf is unclear. What is clear is that it does not reflect how decisions are actually made in Iran today.

I understand the desire to frame recent developments as a shift within the Iranian regime, or to suggest that the U.S. negotiated with Iran’s “top decision-maker.” But that’s simply not the reality.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is a senior figure, but he is not the one who truly holds power in Iran. Real authority lies with Mojtaba Khamenei, alongside the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a small circle of senior security figures closely tied to the Supreme Leader’s office. Ghalibaf is a controversial and deeply corrupted figure, but he remains committed to the IRGC and the survival of the regime. At most, he would have come to any engagement with clearly defined limits set in Tehran. He is neither empowered nor inclined to compromise on core strategic issues.

The broader issue goes far beyond Ghalibaf. Tehran currently sees itself as being in a position of strength. As a result, it has little incentive to make meaningful concessions in negotiations. Iran is not going to give up uranium enrichment, its missile program, or its regional proxy network, regardless of who is formally involved in talks.

Whether this narrative is meant to elevate or undermine Ghalibaf is unclear. What is clear is that it does not reflect how decisions are actually made in Iran today.

Vance is talking up a ‘Trumpian grand bargain’ to make Iran ‘thrive’

He again addressed the negotiations, sounding rather optimistic this time, at a Turning Point USA event in Atlanta on Tuesday evening:

JD Vance:Trump says to Iran: “If you commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran economically thrive.” pic.twitter.com/hg9SM41YfJ— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 14, 2026

JD Vance:Trump says to Iran: “If you commit to not having a nuclear weapon, we are going to make Iran economically thrive.” pic.twitter.com/hg9SM41YfJ

Vance will also lead possible second round of talks

Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face sit down before the ceasefire expires next week, sources familiar with the talks told CNN. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who headed diplomatic talks since before the war began, are also expected to attend any possible second meeting, the sources said.

Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of talks with Iranian officials should negotiations lead to another face-to-face sit down before the ceasefire expires next week, sources familiar with the talks told CNN. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who headed diplomatic talks since before the war began, are also expected to attend any possible second meeting, the sources said.

That is a very expensive drone

The US Navy has confirmed that it lost a $240 million MQ-4C Triton reconnaissance drone last week, likely this one that crashed into the Persian Gulf after scouting the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/ZiPQCUtHsb— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 14, 2026

The US Navy has confirmed that it lost a $240 million MQ-4C Triton reconnaissance drone last week, likely this one that crashed into the Persian Gulf after scouting the Strait of Hormuz. pic.twitter.com/ZiPQCUtHsb

New satellite images show Iran has been working to remove debris blocking the entrances to its underground missile bases during the ceasefire. In the images, front-end loaders can be seen scooping up rubble and loading it into nearby dump trucks 📸: Airbushttps://t.co/04vAmKuTVz pic.twitter.com/0cVfcnQ1z8— Thomas Bordeaux (@ThomasBordeaux7) April 14, 2026

New satellite images show Iran has been working to remove debris blocking the entrances to its underground missile bases during the ceasefire. In the images, front-end loaders can be seen scooping up rubble and loading it into nearby dump trucks 📸: Airbushttps://t.co/04vAmKuTVz pic.twitter.com/0cVfcnQ1z8

Some market optimism again (for now)

A partial summary from CNBC:

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 1.18%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.96%, while the blue-chip Dow advanced 317.74 points, or 0.66%. The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high of 7,002.28, reached on Jan. 28. Tuesday marked the index’s ninth positive session in 10, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq also posted its 10th straight session of gains. The S&P 500′s Monday advance erased its losses dating back to when the Iran conflict began in late February.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 1.18%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.96%, while the blue-chip Dow advanced 317.74 points, or 0.66%. The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high of 7,002.28, reached on Jan. 28. Tuesday marked the index’s ninth positive session in 10, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq also posted its 10th straight session of gains. The S&P 500′s Monday advance erased its losses dating back to when the Iran conflict began in late February.

20 ships in 24 hours

This is a notable uptick in commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, per U.S. officials who spoke with the Wall Street Journal:

More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to two U.S. officials. While commercial traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the war, the flow of vessels is an improvement through a critical chokepoint. … The ships that crossed the strait in the last 24 hours include cargo, container and tanker vessels going into and out of the Persian Gulf, one of the officials said. Some ships have traveled without their transponders on to minimize the risk of Iranian attacks.

More than 20 commercial ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to two U.S. officials. While commercial traffic is still a fraction of what it was before the war, the flow of vessels is an improvement through a critical chokepoint. … The ships that crossed the strait in the last 24 hours include cargo, container and tanker vessels going into and out of the Persian Gulf, one of the officials said. Some ships have traveled without their transponders on to minimize the risk of Iranian attacks.

How did the trilateral Lebanon talks go?

Al Monitor’s Joyce Karam offers a succinct summary:

- The fact that talks happened is significant, shows a shift in Lebanon- Pace is slow considering Israel’s continued war, Hezbollah rejecting, firing missiles during- Record amount of deepfakes from meeting depicting fabricated handshakes, wrongly attributed statements— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) April 14, 2026

- The fact that talks happened is significant, shows a shift in Lebanon- Pace is slow considering Israel’s continued war, Hezbollah rejecting, firing missiles during- Record amount of deepfakes from meeting depicting fabricated handshakes, wrongly attributed statements

Treasury Department says sanctions relief for Iranian oil won’t be renewed

Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury, maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. Financial institutions should be on notice that the department is leveraging the full range of available tools and authorities and is prepared to deploy secondary sanctions against foreign…— Treasury Department (@USTreasury) April 14, 2026

Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury, maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. Financial institutions should be on notice that the department is leveraging the full range of available tools and authorities and is prepared to deploy secondary sanctions against foreign…

Europe’s U.S.-free postwar plan for the strait

The Wall Street Journal reports:

European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S. French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn’t include the “belligerent” parties, meaning the U.S., Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn’t be under American command. The goal of the European plan is to give shipping companies confidence to use the strait after the fighting has ended, which officials say could be some time away.The European plan is likely to include Germany, which had until now been publicly reluctant to even contemplate any military involvement, according to a senior German official. Germany, which has faced high political and legal hurdles to take part in overseas military ventures since World War II, could spell out its commitment as early as Thursday, according to the official. 

European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S. 

French President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday the plan is for an international defensive mission that doesn’t include the “belligerent” parties, meaning the U.S., Israel and Iran. European diplomats familiar with the plan say European ships wouldn’t be under American command. The goal of the European plan is to give shipping companies confidence to use the strait after the fighting has ended, which officials say could be some time away.

The European plan is likely to include Germany, which had until now been publicly reluctant to even contemplate any military involvement, according to a senior German official. Germany, which has faced high political and legal hurdles to take part in overseas military ventures since World War II, could spell out its commitment as early as Thursday, according to the official. 

You can win a war without a coherent theory for victory

At War on the Rocks, Ryan Evans explains how the Trump administration’s conclusion that the war has gone well “is a mistake with a time-honored but deleterious tradition: that of mistaking tactical success for victory and of operational excellence for a strategy”:

The war has not failed because the bombs and missiles missed. The war failed because the men who ordered the bombing could not answer, before they ordered it or at any point thereafter, the one question that makes war something other than organized violence: What are we trying to get the enemy to do and how does this make them do it? In other words, what is our theory of victory — the connection between our aims and actions? It is, of course, true that aims may change throughout the course of a given conflict, but when you cannot answer that question consistently in the opening days, you have not lost control of the war. You never had it.This seems to indicate the military campaign developed by Central Command and the Pentagon could not have possibly been scoped to an achievable end. The military will certainly act in the absence of strategy — we have seen that many times — but tactical brilliance cannot compensate for that. And without war aims and strategy, victory against Iran will be impossible. …[E]ven if the Iranian regime suffers enormously, that does not make it a victory for the United States. I don’t think the American people will be satisfied by an Israeli-style approach to “mowing the grass” every few years in Iran. And, as many have pointed out (including this administration in its own National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy), war in the Middle East is a massive distraction from more pressing challenges for America elsewhere in the world. So, all we have to console ourselves with is a tally of leaders, officials, equipment, and production facilities killed and destroyed, which do not a victory make.

The war has not failed because the bombs and missiles missed. The war failed because the men who ordered the bombing could not answer, before they ordered it or at any point thereafter, the one question that makes war something other than organized violence: What are we trying to get the enemy to do and how does this make them do it? In other words, what is our theory of victory — the connection between our aims and actions? It is, of course, true that aims may change throughout the course of a given conflict, but when you cannot answer that question consistently in the opening days, you have not lost control of the war. You never had it.

This seems to indicate the military campaign developed by Central Command and the Pentagon could not have possibly been scoped to an achievable end. The military will certainly act in the absence of strategy — we have seen that many times — but tactical brilliance cannot compensate for that. And without war aims and strategy, victory against Iran will be impossible. …

[E]ven if the Iranian regime suffers enormously, that does not make it a victory for the United States. I don’t think the American people will be satisfied by an Israeli-style approach to “mowing the grass” every few years in Iran. And, as many have pointed out (including this administration in its own National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy), war in the Middle East is a massive distraction from more pressing challenges for America elsewhere in the world. So, all we have to console ourselves with is a tally of leaders, officials, equipment, and production facilities killed and destroyed, which do not a victory make.

Last week, our contributor Jonah Shepp argued that the war has also demonstrated how wars don’t really work anymore.

Iranian drones targeted Iraqi Kurdistan today

Two of the three drones were shot down. The third apparently struck an Iranian Kurdish opposition group camp

Footage of a (likely French) Dassault Rafale shooting down an Iranian attack drone over northern Iraq today. pic.twitter.com/sYmDwWbBz8— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 14, 2026

Footage of a (likely French) Dassault Rafale shooting down an Iranian attack drone over northern Iraq today. pic.twitter.com/sYmDwWbBz8

Earlier today:A refuge camp was hit in Sulaymaniah, Dukan, KRI,#Iraq 🇮🇶 via a UAV attack which is believed to be from Iran. pic.twitter.com/ayUEcbHkuM— Shin (@hey_itsmyturn) April 14, 2026

Earlier today:A refuge camp was hit in Sulaymaniah, Dukan, KRI,#Iraq 🇮🇶 via a UAV attack which is believed to be from Iran. pic.twitter.com/ayUEcbHkuM

Encouragement, not escorts

Natasha Bertrand reports:

A US official told CNN that the Navy is not escorting any ships through the strait, but has been communicating to merchant vessels (that have not entered or exited Iranian ports) that it is safe to pass and encouraging them to do so. … The US also sent destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz last weekend to demonstrate that there is a safe path through the waterway, the official said.

A US official told CNN that the Navy is not escorting any ships through the strait, but has been communicating to merchant vessels (that have not entered or exited Iranian ports) that it is safe to pass and encouraging them to do so. … The US also sent destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz last weekend to demonstrate that there is a safe path through the waterway, the official said.

Meanwhile in the middle East Coast

The U.S.-Lebanon-Israel talks are underway in D.C.:

‼️ @SecRubio : This meeting is not about a ceasefire. It is not an event it is a process.Stone faces by the Lebanese & the Israeli delegations.Lebanese AMB Nada Hamadah Mouawad was accompanied by Lebanese DCM Wissam Boutros . pic.twitter.com/q9YtoHGzpD— Hiba Nasr (@HibaNasr) April 14, 2026

‼️ @SecRubio : This meeting is not about a ceasefire. It is not an event it is a process.Stone faces by the Lebanese & the Israeli delegations.Lebanese AMB Nada Hamadah Mouawad was accompanied by Lebanese DCM Wissam Boutros . pic.twitter.com/q9YtoHGzpD

Trump suggests 20-year enrichment ban isn’t enough

“I’ve been saying they can’t have nuclear weapons, so I don’t like the 20 years,” he told the New York Post, a day after multiple reports indicated the U.S. had asked Iran for a 20-year enrichment ban. It’s not clear why he saying that.

He also suggested there may indeed be another round of direct talks in Pakistan this week, because he likes Pakistan Field Marshal General Asim Munir:

“You should stay there, really, because something could be........

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