In the aftermath of air strikes on gas fields and oil facilities around the Middle East, the global energy crisis touched off by the war in Iran has quickly gone from bad to potentially catastrophic. Here’s the latest reporting, analysis, and commentary on the chaos.

‘Their leaders are all gone’

During his White House event with the Navy’s football team earlier Friday, Trump claimed that all of Iran’s leadership has been eliminated, leaving the United States with no one to communicate with.

“Their leaders are all gone. The next set of leaders are all gone. And the next set of leaders are mostly gone. And now nobody wants to be a leader over there anymore,” the president said. “We’re having a hard time. We want to talk to them and there’s nobody to talk to. We have nobody to talk to. And you know what? We like it that way.”

Top Iran military spox float threats against U.S., Israeli officials

Iran’s top military spokesman, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, warned that “Iran is monitoring enemy officials, commanders, pilots and soldiers,” according to the semi-official Iranian News Agency, Mehr.He also warned “that based on information available to Iran, recreational areas, tourist destinations and leisure centers around the world would no longer be safe for them,” according to Mehr.

Iran’s top military spokesman, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi, warned that “Iran is monitoring enemy officials, commanders, pilots and soldiers,” according to the semi-official Iranian News Agency, Mehr.

He also warned “that based on information available to Iran, recreational areas, tourist destinations and leisure centers around the world would no longer be safe for them,” according to Mehr.

NATO moves Iraq personnel to Europe

In a statement, NATO confirmed that it had “adjusted its posture” and relocated all personnel from its mission in Iraq out of the Middle East to to Europe. The last member of the team left on March 20.

‘We’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this…’

CNBC spoke to an investment strategist about what a possible escalation overseas could mean for volatile prices and markets:

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.”

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.”

Experts say reopening the Strait will likely require U.S. ground troops

More from a report from MS NOW:

Some former military officials and maritime experts are confident that American ships, aircraft and drones alone will be enough to protect tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and bordered by Iran to the north.Others say U.S. ground troops would need to seize control of miles of Iranian coastline and secure it until the conflict ends.“You’ll need to create a buffer zone on the ground if it’s determined that air strikes do not sufficiently decrease Iran’s ability to fire onto traffic transiting the straits,” said Retired Army Gen. James A. “Spider” Marks, a military analyst. “That’s why Marines are en route. It’s a contingency force.”

Some former military officials and maritime experts are confident that American ships, aircraft and drones alone will be enough to protect tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point and bordered by Iran to the north.

Others say U.S. ground troops would need to seize control of miles of Iranian coastline and secure it until the conflict ends.

“You’ll need to create a buffer zone on the ground if it’s determined that air strikes do not sufficiently decrease Iran’s ability to fire onto traffic transiting the straits,” said Retired Army Gen. James A. “Spider” Marks, a military analyst. “That’s why Marines are en route. It’s a contingency force.”

Supreme Leader issues statement praising Iranians for strength amidst war

The AP has more from the latest message from Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei who has yet to be seen in public since the war began:

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei praised Iranians’ steadfastness in the face of war in a written statement read on Iranian television to mark the Persian New Year, Nowruz.Khamenei said the U.S. and Israeli attacks were based on an illusion that killing Iran’s top leaders could cause the overthrow of the government. He commended Iranians for “building a nationwide defensive front” and “delivering such a bewildering blow that the enemy fell into contradictions and irrational statements.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei praised Iranians’ steadfastness in the face of war in a written statement read on Iranian television to mark the Persian New Year, Nowruz.

Khamenei said the U.S. and Israeli attacks were based on an illusion that killing Iran’s top leaders could cause the overthrow of the government. He commended Iranians for “building a nationwide defensive front” and “delivering such a bewildering blow that the enemy fell into contradictions and irrational statements.”

Dem congressman will now support Iran war powers resolution

Greg Landsman, a congressman from Ohio, was one of four Democrats who voted against a war powers resolution presented in the House earlier this month. “I will vote for Congressman Meeks’ War Powers Resolution if it comes to the floor.. I urge every one of my colleagues to vote Yes. The United States Armed Forces have accomplished remarkable tactical and strategic successes,” Landsman said in a statement. “It’s now time to be done.”

Trump says the U.S. is doing ‘extremely well’ in Iran

The president made the comments during a White House event where he was set to present the Commander in Chief’s Trophy to the Navy Midshipmen football team.

“I want to begin by just saying that we’re doing extremely well in Iran. The difference between them and us is they had a Navy two weeks ago. They have no Navy anymore. It’s all at the bottom of the sea. 58 ships knocked down in two days,” he said.

Trump continued, “We’re not going to let them have nuclear weapons because if they had them, they’d use them. And we’re not going to let that happen.”

Are MAGA voters sticking with Trump over Iran?

A Politico poll suggests that voters who self-identify as part of the MAGA movement overwhelmingly support President Trump’s actions in Iran compared to Republican Trump supporters who don’t affiliate themselves with the political ideology.

81 percent of self-professed MAGA voters said they support the U.S.’s recent strikes in Iran while only seven percent of that group said they opposed. As for non-MAGA Republican supporters of Trump, 61 percent said they backed the military action while 19 percent said they were against them. The poll was conducted by the London-based polling firm Public First and surveyed 3,851 U.S. adults from March 13 to March 18.

U.S. to send three warships, 2,500 Marines to Middle East

The Associated Press has the latest details:

One U.S. official confirmed Friday that the USS Boxer and two other amphibious assault ships, along with roughly 2,500 Marines of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, have deployed from their home port of San Diego and are bound for the Middle East.

One U.S. official confirmed Friday that the USS Boxer and two other amphibious assault ships, along with roughly 2,500 Marines of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, have deployed from their home port of San Diego and are bound for the Middle East.

Trump calls NATO nations ‘cowards’ over Strait of Hormuz

In a new TruthSocial post:

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP

What high oil prices could mean for the U.S. economy

The Bulwark’s Catherine Rampell looks at how volatility in oil prices could cause a cascading effect that ends in a recession:

Obviously, high fuel prices are frustrating for consumers, who see billboard advertisements on their drive to work every day reminding them how expensive gas keeps getting. But fuel prices don’t just feed into inflation; they also have enormous consequences for global economic growth.That’s because demand for fuel is pretty “inelastic,” meaning it’s hard for consumers or companies to cut back how much they buy when prices rise. People have to buy gas to commute to work or take their kids to school. Companies have to buy fuel to run their factories or keep the lights on. This means that when fuel prices rise, the buyers of fuel must grit their teeth, spend the money, and then cut back spending on other things.

Obviously, high fuel prices are frustrating for consumers, who see billboard advertisements on their drive to work every day reminding them how expensive gas keeps getting. But fuel prices don’t just feed into inflation; they also have enormous consequences for global economic growth.

That’s because demand for fuel is pretty “inelastic,” meaning it’s hard for consumers or companies to cut back how much they buy when prices rise. People have to buy gas to commute to work or take their kids to school. Companies have to buy fuel to run their factories or keep the lights on. This means that when fuel prices rise, the buyers of fuel must grit their teeth, spend the money, and then cut back spending on other things.

U.S. and Israel’s differing goals in Iran

The Washington Post reports that the ongoing conflict in Iran is exposing splinters between the United States and Israel regarding their goals for the war:

Israeli officials denied that the two countries are misaligned, saying Trump and Netanyahu talk almost every day and are pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy based on their mutual strengths. “Israel coordinates everything with the U.S.,” an Israeli official told The Post last week.But other officials say significant cracks in the alliance began to emerge in the second week of the war as Israel’s attacks on Iran’s oil facilities unleashed clouds of toxic smoke and acid rain and the compounding economic impacts of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz began to sink in.“Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which is not what our goal is,” said a senior U.S. administration official. “Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy and decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact.”

Israeli officials denied that the two countries are misaligned, saying Trump and Netanyahu talk almost every day and are pursuing a divide-and-conquer strategy based on their mutual strengths. “Israel coordinates everything with the U.S.,” an Israeli official told The Post last week.

But other officials say significant cracks in the alliance began to emerge in the second week of the war as Israel’s attacks on Iran’s oil facilities unleashed clouds of toxic smoke and acid rain and the compounding economic impacts of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz began to sink in.

“Israel is pursuing a scorched-earth campaign of regime change, which is not what our goal is,” said a senior U.S. administration official. “Bibi wants to wreck Iran’s economy and decimate its energy infrastructure. Trump wants to keep it intact.”

A quick look at national gas prices

As of Friday morning, the national average for a gallon is $3.91 for regular, $4.78 for premium and $5.15 for diesel, according to AAA.

How the Basij still operates despite Israel’s attacks

The Associated Press examines how Basij, a paramilitary unit within Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, continues to exert its power despite reported attacks on its leadership and infrastructure from Israel:

Residents say security forces still have an intimidating presence in Tehran. War monitors say an intensified crackdown that began with the crushing of January’s nationwide protests continues, often targeting those who take videos of strikes or try to get around a weekslong internet blackout to contact the outside world.Israel’s campaign may aim to undermine the morale of Basijis and prompt defections or refusals to serve. It could also encourage the many Iranians who remain furious over the thousands killed in January’s crackdown. In early March, Israel’s military issued a Farsi-language message urging the mothers of Basijis to “save their children” by encouraging them put down their arms.But the Basijis are highly ideological and “the most decentralized force within an already highly decentralized system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran’s security and foreign policy.Israel’s killing of its top commander, Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, early Tuesday, is unlikely to disrupt it, Azizi said. The Basij chief is chosen not for expertise but for “ideological rigidity and demonstrated loyalty to the supreme leader,” playing a more symbolic role.

Residents say security forces still have an intimidating presence in Tehran. War monitors say an intensified crackdown that began with the crushing of January’s nationwide protests continues, often targeting those who take videos of strikes or try to get around a weekslong internet blackout to contact the outside world.

Israel’s campaign may aim to undermine the morale of Basijis and prompt defections or refusals to serve. It could also encourage the many Iranians who remain furious over the thousands killed in January’s crackdown. In early March, Israel’s military issued a Farsi-language message urging the mothers of Basijis to “save their children” by encouraging them put down their arms.

But the Basijis are highly ideological and “the most decentralized force within an already highly decentralized system,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran’s security and foreign policy.

Israel’s killing of its top commander, Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, early Tuesday, is unlikely to disrupt it, Azizi said. The Basij chief is chosen not for expertise but for “ideological rigidity and demonstrated loyalty to the supreme leader,” playing a more symbolic role.

IEA head says the energy threat is worse than you think

The Financial Times reports:

The Iran war is the gravest energy crunch ever, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, adding that it could take six months or longer to restore oil and gas flows from the Gulf. Fatih Birol, who helped to co-ordinate Europe’s response to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, described the conflict as “the greatest global energy security threat in history”.He said more oil had been cut off now than during the shocks of the 1970s, and twice as much gas was now offline than the amount Europe cut off from Russia in 2022. But Birol said that politicians and markets were underestimating the scale of the disruption in the Middle East, with roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies stranded in the region. “People understand that this is a major challenge, but I am not sure that the depth and the consequences of the situation are well understood,” he said in an interview with the FT.

The Iran war is the gravest energy crunch ever, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, adding that it could take six months or longer to restore oil and gas flows from the Gulf. Fatih Birol, who helped to co-ordinate Europe’s response to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, described the conflict as “the greatest global energy security threat in history”.

He said more oil had been cut off now than during the shocks of the 1970s, and twice as much gas was now offline than the amount Europe cut off from Russia in 2022. But Birol said that politicians and markets were underestimating the scale of the disruption in the Middle East, with roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supplies stranded in the region. “People understand that this is a major challenge, but I am not sure that the depth and the consequences of the situation are well understood,” he said in an interview with the FT.

The interconnected energy infrastructure of the Gulf

At the Stimson Center, energy strategist Umud Shokri provides an in-depth analysis of the dangers of the energy war escalation in the region after the gas field strikes:

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to all but Tehran-approved traffic, the new strikes mark a qualitative escalation. Earlier disruptions primarily affected transit, constraining exports without necessarily damaging production capacity. By contrast, missile attacks on Ras Laffan target core infrastructure itself, causing fires, physical damage, and potential long-term outages. In other words, the crisis has shifted from a logistical bottleneck to a structural supply shock, with far more severe implications for global energy stability.These developments highlight a critical reality: The Gulf’s energy system operates as an interconnected network rather than a collection of isolated assets. Shared reservoirs, cross-border pipelines, joint ventures, and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz create systemic interdependence. Disruptions in one node rapidly propagate across the system.Once energy infrastructure becomes a target, escalation becomes inherently reciprocal. Iran possesses the capability to strike regional energy infrastructure through missiles, drones, and proxy actors. Gulf states, while better defended, rely on uninterrupted production and stable investment conditions, making them highly sensitive to sustained disruption.The conflict also extends beyond the Gulf. Israeli offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Leviathan and Tamar, represent potential targets for retaliation. Iran and its regional partners have previously signaled their willingness to target such infrastructure. Disruption to these assets would affect Israel’s domestic supply and regional export arrangements to countries such as Egypt, expanding the geographic scope of energy risk.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to all but Tehran-approved traffic, the new strikes mark a qualitative escalation. Earlier disruptions primarily affected transit, constraining exports without necessarily damaging production capacity. By contrast, missile attacks on Ras Laffan target core infrastructure itself, causing fires, physical damage, and potential long-term outages. In other words, the crisis has shifted from a logistical bottleneck to a structural supply shock, with far more severe implications for global energy stability.

These developments highlight a critical reality: The Gulf’s energy system operates as an interconnected network rather than a collection of isolated assets. Shared reservoirs, cross-border pipelines, joint ventures, and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz create systemic interdependence. Disruptions in one node rapidly propagate across the system.

Once energy infrastructure becomes a target, escalation becomes inherently reciprocal. Iran possesses the capability to strike regional energy infrastructure through missiles, drones, and proxy actors. Gulf states, while better defended, rely on uninterrupted production and stable investment conditions, making them highly sensitive to sustained disruption.

The conflict also extends beyond the Gulf. Israeli offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly Leviathan and Tamar, represent potential targets for retaliation. Iran and its regional partners have previously signaled their willingness to target such infrastructure. Disruption to these assets would affect Israel’s domestic supply and regional export arrangements to countries such as Egypt, expanding the geographic scope of energy risk.

Is Dubai really over?

I spoke to Tanvi Malik, a long-standing resident of Dubai, who spoke about what the “Dubai is Over” narrative emerging due to the ongoing regional war is missing:

I find that what some western media is missing is that you don’t condemn the entire United States because of the decisions and actions of a certain politician or a certain entity at a moment in time. And I find that we often get painted not just as a country but as a region with broad strokes. So you lose the nuance of Dubai, a country that’s just a few decades old, which was deeply involved in humanitarian efforts even before it was a country, which has a very complex social makeup.In the generation before this one, most Emirati locals would speak Hindi, Urdu, Farsi, all the languages of all the people of the broader region that moved here to help build it. So there is a lot more beyond the buildings and the influencers and the story of now. That story is only really post-COVID, post-Russia/Ukraine, all the geopolitics and the socioeconomics of the region of the past several years, which have guided people here because of the stability that was built decades ago.That stability was not built by these influencers. It was built by a very different generation, and then families like mine and many others who moved here for a better opportunity than maybe what they had elsewhere. And I think the media of today can only see recency, and they’re missing that broader picture.

I find that what some western media is missing is that you don’t condemn the entire United States because of the decisions and actions of a certain politician or a certain entity at a moment in time. And I find that we often get painted not just as a country but as a region with broad strokes. So you lose the nuance of Dubai, a country that’s just a few decades old, which was deeply involved in humanitarian efforts even before it was a country, which has a very complex social makeup.

In the generation before this one, most Emirati locals would speak Hindi, Urdu, Farsi, all the languages of all the people of the broader region that moved here to help build it. So there is a lot more beyond the buildings and the influencers and the story of now. That story is only really post-COVID, post-Russia/Ukraine, all the geopolitics and the socioeconomics of the region of the past several years, which have guided people here because of the stability that was built decades ago.

That stability was not built by these influencers. It was built by a very different generation, and then families like mine and many others who moved here for a better opportunity than maybe what they had elsewhere. And I think the media of today can only see recency, and they’re missing that broader picture.

Read the rest of our conversation here.

Another rising day for oil prices

CNN’s John Liu reports:

Oil prices rose Friday as energy infrastructure in the Middle East was damaged and the vital Strait of Hormuz was still largely shut. Goldman Sachs even suggested that higher prices could last all the way through 2027. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.4% to $110.2 a barrel. WTI, the US benchmark, was up 0.3% at $95.9.“The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note Thursday.US and Brent crude have separated a bit this week after the Trump administration worked to bring some more US production online. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, insulating the country from some – but not all – of the recent disruption from the Iran war, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note Friday. …US gas prices rose another 3 cents a gallon overnight to $3.91, on average, Friday, according to AAA. That’s the highest average price for a gallon of regular gas since October 13, 2022.

Oil prices rose Friday as energy infrastructure in the Middle East was damaged and the vital Strait of Hormuz was still largely shut. Goldman Sachs even suggested that higher prices could last all the way through 2027. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose 1.4% to $110.2 a barrel. WTI, the US benchmark, was up 0.3% at $95.9.

“The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note Thursday.

US and Brent crude have separated a bit this week after the Trump administration worked to bring some more US production online. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, insulating the country from some – but not all – of the recent disruption from the Iran war, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note Friday. …

US gas prices rose another 3 cents a gallon overnight to $3.91, on average, Friday, according to AAA. That’s the highest average price for a gallon of regular gas since October 13, 2022.

More on that Goldman note:

With the strait nearly blocked for almost three weeks, Goldman Sachs expects that oil prices will likely trend........

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