For over two decades, men’s tennis has been defined by something of a paradox: electrifying predictability. Starting with Roger Federer in 2003, a group of five men have utterly dominated the major tournaments, in an unprecedented consolidation of power at the top of the game. Between Fed’s first major win in 2003 and Novak Djokovic’s (probably) final one in 2023, those two legends and Rafael Nadal combined to win the biggest tournaments in tennis — the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open — a staggering 66 out of 77 possible times. The Big Three then gave way to the duopoly of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, who have captured every one of the last nine majors, and almost certainly many more to come.

This dynamic has produced epic match after epic match among a tiny tennis oligarchy (occasionally involving others), and borne some of the greatest moments in sports history. It has made the last rounds of the big tournaments — the semifinals and finals — reliably spellbinding to watch. But the consolidation has come with a price: it has sapped much of the drama from most major tournaments until those last two or three days, since, except on very rare occasions, almost nobody had a real chance to win. As prodigiously talented as everyone on the ATP tour is, the other 125 or 126 guys in the draw appeared to be playing in a different league, whose ultimate prize was runner-up.

This year’s unpredictable and downright wacky French Open is a stark departure from all that. And the absence of the best........

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