On Tuesday afternoon, Donald Trump dropped a last-minute endorsement in the GOP’s Texas Senate primary, giving the nod to MAGA stalwart Ken Paxton and likely sealing his victory over the four-term incumbent, Senator John Cornyn. Most political observers were surprised, figuring that the moment for Trump to intervene in the race had passed.

Paxton wasn’t surprised, though. According to a source familiar with their conversation, the candidate got a call from Trump on Tuesday morning. The president played coy with Paxton, telling him, “I’m gonna do something and you’re gonna like it” in a planned 12:30 p.m announcement. There was anxiety within the campaign about whether the president might be offering a dual endorsement of him and Cornyn, as Trump infamously did in a 2022 Senate primary between former Missouri governor Eric Greitens and then–state attorney general Eric Schmitt. (Trump simply endorsed “Eric.”) Paxton dismissed those fears. “Based on that conversation, I’m very certain it’s me,” he said.

It was the end of a will-he-or-won’t-he drama that had dragged on for months. In retrospect, a turning point in the saga — one that potentially saved Paxton’s candidacy and doomed Cornyn’s — had come about when a Paxton campaign staffer threw out a wild idea.

The first round of voting in the GOP primary, which took place on March 3, yielded an unpleasant and surprising result for Paxton: Despite being expected to win, he ended up placing second, nearly two points behind Cornyn. Suddenly, his scandal-ridden populist candidacy was in jeopardy and there was a window for Trump to throw his support behind the incumbent.

As the disappointing round-one results came in, Paxton’s team floated ideas about how to counter a potential Trump endorsement of Cornyn. Someone half-seriously suggested Paxton could offer to drop........

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