Photograph Source: Marc Nozell – CC BY 2.0

Conservatives claim that Donald Trump’s electoral victories show that his Republican Party, not the Democrats, now represents the working class.

Sen. Josh Hawley tweeted on election night 2020, “We are a working-class party now. That’s the future.” Although unions only represent 10% of the working-class labor force, since 1980, Democrats have not dipped below 51%. However, as the data below shows, most working-class Whites have become Republican voters.

Using Vanderbilt data, most White working-class voters voted for Republican presidential candidates in seven of the last 11 elections, from 1980 through 2020. Since Bill Clinton’s elections, only Obama’s first race has a Democrat won the majority of White working-class voters. However, Obama dramatically lost their support in his second election, with 57% of them going to Presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Who are the working-class folks?

Like most surveys, the 2021 report defines the working class as people without a college degree. However, it added that they also belong to the bottom half of the household income distribution. This eliminates those who don’t finish college but still go on to earn high salaries, like Bill Gates. I’ve used Vanderbilt’s definition where possible but note when data is based only on education level.

The Vanderbilt Project’s Political Science Professors Noam Lupu and Nicholas Carnes found that among GOP voters, working-class Whites (using their definition) have remained at the 31% percentage level the Republicans achieved in 2012 when Mitt Romney ran against Obama.

Have they become Republicans?

Lupu and Carnes take solace in saying, “Trump’s term in office stalled a long-term trend of White working-class voters moving to the Republican Party.” However, they did measure the proportion of those who voted Republican in past elections, which provides a less optimistic trend. White working-class voters’ proportion going for a Republican president reached new heights with Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

Before Trump’s 2016 campaign, the proportion voting for a Republican peaked at 57% when Obama ran for reelection in 2012. Trump raised it to 62% in 2016, which remained high at 59% when he lost in 2020. Lupu and Carnes have not posted any data analysis on the 2024 election.

However, an exit poll by TRT World of the 2024 election was available. It defined working-class voters as those without college degrees. In 2024, 42 % voted for Kamala Harris, while Trump took 56%, marking a six-point increase over his 2020 election against Biden.

According to Pew Research, White working-class........

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