CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

How a US Attack on Iran Could Result in a Nuclear War

Image by Egor Myznik.

Trump recently floated the idea of a “small” attack, with the Iranians responding symbolically by striking an empty U.S. base. But Tehran refused and made clear that any attack would be responded to forcefully. Trump may hope that with a much larger strike force in the region, Tehran will reconsider its response.

Most analysts note Iran has little negotiating room and most of Trump’s demands are nonstarters. Once the bombs fly, all bets are off. Iran has a substantial missile arsenal and 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has indicated any US attack would spark a regional war.

As of early 2026, Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with an estimated 1,500 to over 3,000 ballistic missiles. Despite losses in the 2024–2025 conflicts with Israel, the stockpile remains formidable, featuring long-range, precision-guided, and hypersonic capabilities, supported by underground “missile cities” and significant, often indigenously produced, inventory.

Key aspects of Iran’s arsenal as of early 2026:

Inventory Size & Range: While older estimates placed the arsenal above 3,000, recent, intense exchanges in 2024 and 2025 may have reduced the active stockpile to approximately 1,500–2,000 ballistic missiles, with rapid replenishment efforts observed.

Types: The arsenal includes solid-fuel and liquid-fuel short-range (SRBM) and medium-range (MRBM) ballistic missiles, along with cruise missiles and advanced unmanned........

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