CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

Regime Change in the Iran War, But Which One?

Photograph Source: Staff Sgt. Madelyn Keech – Public Domain

Last June 2025 Trump bombed Iran. He said to eliminate Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons development. He then proclaimed he had achieved that goal. So what then is the War about now? What’s the US strategic objective? The endgame?

In the midst of the recent Epstein scandal, Israel’s Netanyahu a week ago visited the White House again demanding the US once more attack Iran. This time he demanded Trump and the US wipe out Iran’s ballistic missile capability, demand that Iran cut all ties with its proxy supporters in the region, dismantle its Revolutionary Guard units, and agree to turn over all its remaining domestic use nuclear fissionable materials.

Trump accommodated him. He mobilized a third of all US air force and naval assets to the region and engaged the Iranians in negotiations. He then declared publicly a ‘deal’ was imminent, and that Iranian negotiators reportedly agreed to all US-Israel demands on nuclear materials. Oman’s foreign minister, who hosted the negotiations, also publicly declared a deal was concluded by the parties on nuclear arms development. He had even prepared the final papers for the parties to sign. The signing was interrupted, however, as Trump ordered a massive military strike on Iran—once again in the midst of negotiations!

While Trump agreed to Netanyahu’s demands, he simultaneously ignored the advice of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff US admiral who advised him the US military could not guarantee a short and successful war with Iran. Not the news he wanted to hear. He and Netanyahu had already agreed to go to war. Trump promptly removed the admiral from his post!

Thus, once again the US went to war in the middle east on behalf of Israel. The objective was and remains regime change in Iran. Not nuclear arms development. Not even ballistic missile development. The objective was and is regime change.

The most fundamental strategic fact of this war is the following:

Trump wants a short war, two weeks or less. His talking heads pro-war retired generals appearing on US mainstream media daily—i.e. Kean, Kellogg and others—parrot the neocon-Zionist view that the war can be won in just two weeks, three at most. All it takes is a massive air campaign, decapitation of Iran leaders, and a call for a popular uprising to topple the Iranian regime. After all, it took less in Venezuela.

In contrast to the US-Trump-Netanyahu strategy of a short war, Iran plans a long war. It knows the longer the war, the weaker Trump and the US will get. Iran believes closing the strait of Hormuz will drive up oil prices, globally and in the US to unacceptable levels before the critical US Congressional elections in November. Higher oil prices will shock a US economy, barely growing 1.4% at the end of 2025 and a European economy virtually stagnant or in recession. Iran knows global oil prices at $100 a barrel in today’s economy will precipitate a global oil supply shock worse than that which occurred in 1973 and 1979, which led to deep recessions in both cases. Closing the strait of Hormuz, which Iran did immediately, will take at least 20% of global oil supply off the market. This........

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