Ten thousand soldiers on board 10 US warships, including a nuclear submarine, several destroyers and a missile cruiser, patrol the southern Caribbean in what is the largest US military build-up in the region in decades. At least seven boats allegedly transporting drugs have been bombed, resulting in the extrajudicial killing of more than 32 people. And now the US administration is threatening Venezuela with direct military action. The Pentagon has reportedly drawn up plans for military strikes inside Venezuela, and President Trump has authorized the CIA to conduct lethal covert operations there.

All of this is ostensibly aimed at getting rid of Maduro, who Trump claims is leading a vast criminal organization. “Maduro is the leader of the designated narco-terrorist organization Cartel de los Soles, and he is responsible for trafficking drugs into the United States,” Secretary of State — and longtime Venezuela hawk — Marco Rubio has said to justify the US military posture in the region. The United States has also placed a $50m bounty on the Venezuelan president’s head.

The official narrative is a fabrication. The existence of a Venezuelan government-run “Cartel de los Soles”, let alone its control of the transnational cocaine trade from Venezuela, has been largely debunked. And while “Tren de Aragua” is a real criminal organization with a transnational presence, it lacks the capacity to operate in the ways suggested by the United States; it certainly pales in comparison to the power of cartels in Colombia, Mexico, or Ecuador.

Tellingly, the United States Drug Enforcement Administration’s National Drug Threat Assessment of 2024 does not even mention Venezuela. And a classified National Intelligence Council report established that Maduro did not control any drug trafficking organisation. There is no denying that there is some transiting of drugs through Venezuela, but the volume is marginal compared with the cocaine currently passing through South America’s Pacific Coast routes. And Venezuela plays no role in the production and export of synthetic drugs such as fentanyl, or with the US’s broader opioid crisis. Put simply, if the Trump administration was actually intent on combating drug trafficking, Venezuela makes little sense as a target.

So what is US policy really about? And where might this dramatic escalation lead?

At first, the US display of force off the coast of Venezuela appeared to be an exercise in political theatre: an attempt by President Trump to project his “tough on crime” approach to domestic — including eager MAGA —........

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