Venezuela and Iran hold the largest and third-largest petroleum reserves in the world, respectively. Both have been targeted for regime change by Washington. The world’s hegemon naturally seeks access to such resources. Yet it would be simplistic to think that would be only for narrow economic motives.

Dominion over energy flows—especially from countries with large reserves—is central to maintaining global influence. Washington requires control of strategic resources to sustain its position as global hegemon; a goal reflected in its official policy of “full spectrum dominance.” The 2017 National Security Strategy establishes “energy dominance” as an instrument of imperial power.

For Venezuela and Iran, sovereign control over their vast hydrocarbon wealth is a prerequisite for exercising even a modest degree of independence and some regional and global influence within a geopolitical landscape dominated by the US and its allies.

Venezuela and Iran were founding members of the OPEC alliance of oil-producing countries in 1960. Both countries rejected Western dominance and nationalized their considerable oil sectors. In Iran, Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh established the National Iranian Oil Company in 1951, precipitating the CIA-MI6 coup that deposed him. In Venezuela, President Carlos Andrés Pérez nationalized the oil industry in 1976 through the creation of state oil company. The PDVSA was later expanded and reoriented by President Hugo Chávez after 2002.

In a prescient address at Tehran University, Venezuelan President Chávez admonished:

If the US empire succeeds in consolidating its dominance, then humankind has no future. Therefore, we have to save humankind and put an end to the US empire.

Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution and Iran’s Islamic Revolution are both of necessity anti-imperialist projects that have forged ties with Russia and China, Washington’s two major-power “strategic competitors.” The hegemon’s response reflects its broader pattern of targeting resource-rich, independent states that resist integration into the US-led “world order.”

Both countries have been targeted for their non-aligned foreign policy. Iran occupies a central position in the resistance to Zionism, supporting Hezbollah, the former Syrian government, Ansar Allah (the Houthis), and above all the Palestinian struggle. Likewise, Venezuela has been among the strongest supporters in Latin America of Palestinian self-determination, severing relations with Israel in 2009. Venezuela, too, has been the main supporter of the beleaguered Cuban government.

In 2015, US President Barack Obama declared Venezuela an “extraordinary threat” to US national security as an excuse to impose unilateral coercive measures on Caracas. Two years later, President Donald Trump intensified the hybrid war against Venezuela, modeled on the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

Washington has repeatedly signaled its disregard for international law: Obama’s drone strikes on US citizens in 2011; Trump’s killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020; the January kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro and “First Combatant” Cilia Flores; and on February 28, the murder of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In short, the US-led empire has demonstrated its readiness to capriciously employ lethal force whenever deemed expedient—with confidence that it will face few immediate consequences from the international community.

Oil markets and the timing of war

The US-Israeli attack on Iran of February 28 was anticipated. Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi both warned of an imminent strike. Nasirzadeh was killed in the attack, while Araghchi survived. Israeli officials had earlier described previous attacks as “only the beginning,” while President Trump publicly acknowledged that a strike “could very well happen.”

Energy markets had also been anticipating escalation. Official agencies, market commentary, and the corporate press repeatedly warned about potential oil supply disruption, especially via the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. Oil market indicators reflected these concerns, with oil prices surging in the days preceding the attack.

For years US........

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