Now that the United States and Iran have signed a nonbinding memorandum of understanding ending their war—at least for now—the general public and pundits have been weighing in on who won.

A CBS-YouGov survey released Sunday found that 37% of Americans think the memorandum of understanding (MOU) favors Iran, while 22% believe the United States got the better deal. Nearly half—47%—say both sides broke even.

Newsweek, meanwhile, queried 10 military experts ranging from a former US Navy admiral and a former Pentagon official to five think tank scholars and two professors of international relations. Seven said Iran won the war. Two said “no one.” Only one thought the United States came out on top, but added, “Neither side will gain a complete victory.”

It remains to be seen how things ultimately shake out with the US-Iranian negotiations, but at this point it is clear that two industries won hands down: defense contractors and oil companies. Both profited enormously from the war.

About 20% of the world’s oil and gas is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and after Iran shut it down, oil companies roughly doubled the price per barrel.

It’s also clear that the war’s biggest losers in the United States were motorists, frequent flyers, farmers, and grocery shoppers. In other words, just about everybody besides oil and defense companies and their shareholders.

Defense contractors: There are various estimates of how much the conflict has cost the Defense Department thus far. On May 12, the Pentagon comptroller told Congress that the Pentagon had spent $29 billion in operational costs, but he conceded that the estimate did not include the cost to repair US bases in the Middle East that Iran damaged. According to a more recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, DC-based think tank, the war has cost closer to $40 billion, including the cost of munitions, destroyed equipment, and base damage. Recently the White House asked Congress for $87.6 billion in supplemental spending, mainly to pay for the Iran war.

Munitions have been the Pentagon’s largest expenditure, and defense contractors, notably Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, are cashing in.

In late March, The Washington Post reported that the US Navy launched more than 850 Tomahawk missiles in the first four weeks of the conflict. The Pentagon paid Raytheon (a division of RTX) about $2.2 million for each, or a total of roughly $1.87 billion. In April, the Navy’s fiscal year 2027 budget request asked Congress for $3 billion for 785 additional Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, a more than 1,200% increase from the 55 TLAMs Congress funded for $258 million in FY 2026.

The Post also reported that US military fired more than 1,000 air-defense interceptors, including Lockheed Martin’s Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles, in response to Iranian counterattacks across the region. Each THAAD interceptor missile costs about $12.7 million, while each Patriot interceptor costs about $3.7 million.

This week, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency awarded Lockheed Martin a $35.3 billion contract to produce THAAD interceptors through June 2032 and asked the company to triple its production of Patriot interceptors. It also inked a $398.7 million contract with Raytheon for Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles.

Oil companies: The war has been a bonanza for oil companies. About 20% of the world’s oil and gas is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and after Iran shut it down, oil companies roughly doubled the price per barrel.

ConocoPhillips posted $2.2 billion in profits in the first quarter of 2026, up 84% from the $1.4 billion the previous quarter. BP, meanwhile, reported a $3.8 billion profit for the first quarter compared with a $3.4 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2025.

ExxonMobil and Chevron had lower profits during the first three months of the year than in the previous quarter, but analysts expect a quick turnaround if higher prices persist. The bets are on ExxonMobil’s second-quarter earnings to more than double last year’s level and for full-year earnings to jump 46%, while Chevron’s full-year profits are predicted to rise by 56%.

Inflation jumped in May for a third consecutive month as the Iran war continued to drive up prices, surpassing 4% for the first time in three years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month. Higher prices hit everyone, but especially low- and middle-income Americans. The biggest domestic losers include:

Motorists: Moody’s Analytics, a global financial research firm, estimates that the war has thus far cost Americans $132 billion, and a big chunk of that was due to inflated prices at the pump. Gasoline prices, which averaged just under $3 a gallon when the war began in late February, jumped as high as $4.56 a gallon after Iran cut off the Strait of Hormuz, according to AAA. A gallon of regular gasoline averaged $3.999 last Thursday, the first time since late March that prices were that low. This week, the average price per gallon dipped to $3.928, but gas is 25% more expensive than it was last year at this time and motorists are paying about $1 more per gallon for regular than before the war.

In 2025, US motorists consumed about 374.05........

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