DENTON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 30: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage campaigns with Reform candidate Matt Goodwin in Denton ahead of the Gorton And Denton by-election on January 30, 2026 in Denton, United Kingdom. A pivotal by-election is set to take place on February 26 in Gorton and Denton, triggered by Labour MP Andrew Gwynne's resignation due to ill health. Earlier this week Reform UK announced GB News presenter Matt Goodwin would stand as the party's candidate in the traditionally Labour stronghold. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from standing for the seat by the Labour party's ruling body, which many have argued opens the door for Reform UK and other minority parties to gain ground. (Photo by Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

The upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election is a four-way fight with each party pitching itself as the best way to block the other, says Helen Thomas

The upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election is shaping up to be one of the most frenzied of recent times. By-elections are often used by voters to send a message and mid-term swings against incumbents are common. But this race carries an unusual level of uncertainty, both over the eventual winner and also its impact on the government.

The first complication is structural. Gorton and Denton in its current form has only been contested once due to the redrawing of constituency boundaries that took place ahead of the 2024 general election. That leaves analysts with a thin evidence base. Traditional methods of comparing swings to previous elections or looking for long-term voting patterns are of limited use........

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