President Donald Trump could desperately use a foreign policy win in the Middle East. A war with Iran that was supposed to last four to six weeks is now in its sixth month with no end in sight as Tehran leverages the Strait of Hormuz for its own ends and Trump vacillates between renewed negotiations and more bombing. His peace efforts in Lebanon are spoiled by Hezbollah, an Iranian-sponsored militia whose leaders have made it abundantly clear that negotiations with Israel hinge on a complete Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanese soil. Trump’s attempt to establish normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is going nowhere, notwithstanding his obsession with expanding his first-term Abraham Accords.

Can Gaza, the devastated Palestinian territory, give Trump something to brag about? He certainly hopes so. Last week, the White House announced that Hamas agreed to demilitarize its weapons and demobilize its fighters in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from the enclave. Trump giddily explained to reporters that the deal was nothing short of a breakthrough.

But sift through the happy talk, and the picture becomes far more depressing: A comprehensive peace in Gaza is as unlikely today as it was before this news.

A reality check is in order. The agreement unveiled last week is not new as much as it is an effort to get back to the old arrangement Israel and Hamas arrived at 10 months earlier. That framework, which established an interim Palestinian administration for Gaza, a phased Israeli withdrawal,........

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