Donald Trump must be approaching his nadir. His attempts to spin an ephemeral ceasefire that might not even last until sundown into a "mission accomplished" moment have spectacularly imploded.

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The aim was to allow the US to exit the Iran war while the commander-in-chief crowned himself with the laurels of victory.

Those who sat up to watch Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's hubristic claims of a military triumph equivalent to that of Hannibal at Cannae on Wednesday night could only conclude that he was beaming in from a parallel universe.

As one commentator was quick to point out: "They are taking a victory lap moments after the starter's gun has been fired".

There is an obvious disconnect between the claims being made by Hegseth and Trump and the reality on the ground. Iran still has its stock of enriched uranium, it still controls the strait through which 20 per cent of the world's seaborne oil passes, it has the demonstrated support of thousands of Iranians who have turned out to shield power stations, desalination plants and other strategic assets with their own bodies, and it still has the capacity to launch missiles, drones and suicide boats against its enemies.

And, on top of that, Iran has just bought 14 priceless days in which to consolidate its broken chains of command, regroup and prepare for a resumption of hostilities.

That said, hostilities haven't really ceased. Israel - which appears to be going rogue - has continued its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. This, according to the Pakistani mediators who helped negotiate the truce, is in breach of what had been agreed.

And, more importantly, the latest strikes arrived without warning and are believed to have killed between 180 and 250 people, including many innocent women and children.

The Lebanese government has offered to negotiate directly with Israel even though there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries but Tel Aviv won't come to the table.

Coming after Trump's intemperate language - including a genocidal threat to "destroy a civilisation" - and his shifting goalposts on what victory actually looks like, this charade has left US credibility in tatters.

While the world expects Iran and its proxies to lie, to threaten and to bluster, Tehran has nothing on a US president who is saying: "Hold my beer, I can top that."

Iran has agreed to nothing substantive. Its published 10-point plan demands the impossible, including US withdrawal and reparations, while Tehran reportedly prepares to levy a $2 million toll on passing ships.

If Iran retains a veto over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz it represents a monumental US defeat and a massive strategic win for the regime.

Furthermore, the highly enriched nuclear material has not been retrieved. Instead of a decisive end to the threat, the US now faces an emboldened adversary and a rogue ally in Israel, whose seemingly indiscriminate strikes on apartment buildings makes a mockery of diplomatic efforts.

The clear takeout from all of this is that Trump is desperate to disengage from this mess of his own making before the midterms and has been trying to use the ceasefire to create an off-ramp (even though Hegseth has said the US military forces would remain in place).

This has blown up in his face. The only thing in his favour is polling showing the Democrats are even more on the nose with their constituents than the Republicans.

What a mess. Penny Wong is right to say that while the US is our major ally Australia needs to expand its circle of friends. And Anthony Albanese is right to call for Israel to stand down and say that any credible ceasefire must include Lebanon.

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Responsibility for election comment is taken by John-Paul Moloney of 121 Marcus Clarke Street, Canberra. Published by Federal Capital Press of Australia Pty Ltd.

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