Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Photo by Benjamin Applebaum/DOD/Flickr.

Benjamin Netanyahu could lose office in tomorrow’s election in Israel. For Palestinians, however, a change of government is unlikely to make much of a difference.

Netanyahu’s departure could be greeted rather differently abroad. His exit, and the removal of far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have been sanctioned by foreign states for inciting violence against Palestinians, might pave the way for warmer diplomatic relations and renewed cooperation with foreign states. Canadian officials could find themselves dealing with leaders who, seeking to shed Israel’s pariah status, suddenly speak a more palatable language of human rights, democracy, and international partnership.

The danger is that a change in optics becomes grounds for relaxing pressure before the denial of Palestinian rights has ended. A new Israeli government could enjoy the benefits of a diplomatic reset while leaving the architecture of occupation substantially intact—and primed for more expansion still.

Canada should judge any incoming government by what it does to dismantle these structures. Three years into a genocide enabled by Israel’s political system, replacing Netanyahu alone cannot, and should not, justify a restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

Who makes up Israel’s opposition?

Since first coming to power in 1977, Netanyahu’s Likud party has governed Israel for roughly three-quarters of the past half-century. In recent years it has relied on an alliance with the far-right Religious Zionist movement and Israel’s ultra-Orthodox parties to support Netanyahu’s political survival amid corruption charges and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Likud takes pride in preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state and has accelerated settlement expansion in the illegally occupied West Bank. Its ultranationalist coalition partners, Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) and HaTzionut HaDatit (Religious Zionist Party), led by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich respectively, believe Netanyahu has been too weak on the Palestinian issue. They go further, demanding the ethnic cleansing of Gaza through “voluntary emigration.”

The two long-established ultra-Orthodox parties in the Knesset, United Torah Judaism and Shas, have also supported expanding settlements in the West Bank, especially where large Haredi populations live. Both were key partners in Netanyahu’s governing coalition before withdrawing from government in 2025 over military conscription exemptions, though they have remained important political allies.

But the parties seeking to replace Netanyahu in tomorrow’s vote show little sign of a fundamental........

© Canadian Dimension