Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas, Iran. Photo by Ali Khodabakhsh.

In his February 28, 2026 announcement of the likely illegal US-Israeli war against Iran, Donald Trump outlined four strategic goals.

1. “We are going to… raze their missile industry to the ground.” However, three months into the war, given the effectiveness of Iranian missiles and drones hitting their targets (verified by the BBC and others despite US attempts to block the information), Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said with justification: “America will no longer have a safe place in the region for mischief and… military bases.”

2. “We are going to ensure [their]… terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world.” Yet, more than five months into the war, the Los Angeles Times reported that Iran’s proxy forces constitute “a durable, multifront challenge that Washington and its allies struggle to confront.”

3. “[W]e will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.” But the war has made Iranian nuclear weapons development more likely because it has resulted in a pro-nuclear supreme leader and sharply increased the incentive to develop a deterrent against future aggression. Thus, a deal to reduce Iranian nuclear ambitions is more distant than when the Obama administration signed such a deal in 2015, which Trump tore up in 2018.

4. And, “to the great… people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand… take over your government. It will be yours to take”—the call for regime change. However, rather than leading to its overthrow, the war has hardened the Iranian regime, largely because of “the prioritization of regime survival over reform” in the face of aggression.

In addition, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the global economy. The closure affects virtually every country, but Trump’s war of choice brought it about, so reopening it became a fifth strategic goal for the US. Iran has suffered immense damage, but........

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