If there was an election in Alberta right now and, if the latest nose count is correct, Premier Danielle Smith would kick some serious butt and Alberta lefties would be left wondering how did they get it so wrong.

Right now, surely they must be puzzled. Or not.

The political math simply can’t be true, many of the Smith haters will no doubt say.

Day in and day out the usual mouthpieces tell us Smith is hopelessly out of touch with most Albertans. The Reddit crowd must be blowing a gasket.

We are told how Smith is the most despised Alberta premier ever.

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How she is a separatist. An extremist. A traitor. Always picking fights. Never doing anything productive. Offside on almost every single issue. More than a little bit unhinged.

The most corrupt Alberta premier in history leading the most corrupt Alberta government in history.

She hates trans kids. She hates teachers. She abuses people’s rights. She bans books.

The list of Smith’s political sins apparently has no end.

Smith is painted as the worst of the worst, the lowest of the low.

And come next year Albertans will surely throw this premier out on her ear.

Such is what passes for life instead their bubble.

Then reality comes knocking, very loud knocking, hard to ignore or dismiss.

A poll by the well-respected Leger firm rolls out Friday.

Shocker on Shock Street for much of the chattering classes and those keyboard warriors who insist they feel the political vibe and individuals such as yours truly are not capturing the real mood of citizens.

If a provincial election was held today, Smith and the UCP would beat Naheed Nenshi and the NDP by 17 percentage points.

Fifty three per cent UCP. Thirty six per cent NDP.

The UCP would defeat the NDP outside Calgary and Edmonton by several country miles.

In battleground Calgary the UCP are in the lead as well as in Edmonton.

Yes, in the NDP fortress of Edmonton the UCP are leading.

Even among young people the UCP is winning more hearts and minds than the NDP.

At this rate, the NDP would not gain seats in the legislature. They would not hold what they have. They would lose big.

Smith’s approval is up eight points from last fall.

Nenshi, the man touted as a rock star who the NDP believed would be their political saviour, isn’t working any miracles.

Since the fall Nenshi has “experienced significant decreases in approval.”

Nenshi’s disapproval numbers have gone up 11 points since last October.

Now this is only one poll. There will be others and we don’t expect an election until the fall of next year.

But will the NDP change their approach?

If past experience is anything to go by, they won’t.

They will stick to their script even if it doesn’t work.

They will talk endlessly about their pet causes even if they do not reflect the concerns of most Albertans.

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They will blame everybody but themselves for any misfortune they face.

As for Nenshi, your veteran observer of the political wars told people in the NDP that thinking the former Calgary mayor would be some kind of messiah leading them to the political promised land might just keep them in the political desert.

But most of the people holding an Alberta NDP membership clung to some image of Nenshi from long ago and how he was a great speaker and the self-styled smart set adored him and Calgarians loved him and they were not prepared to listen to anyone who would disturb their fantasy.

How bad is it for Nenshi?

Don’t be surprised if you see the UCP not going after Nenshi directly as they often have.

There are many conservatives who want to prop up Nenshi, to keep him around as Alberta NDP leader until the election.

Andrew Enns of Leger says Smith is focusing on issues many Albertans are concerned about, such as getting a pipeline and building up the economy.

When Smith has taken on social issues and some individuals, including in the press, get vein-popping angry those naysayers apparently haven’t figured out the premier’s positions are “not offside with a lot of mainstream Alberta popular opinion.”

To the NDP, Enns says the numbers show “they’ve got to find the issues that matter to people.”

On Friday Rob Anderson, Smith’s right-hand man, shared numbers from the Leger poll on social media and wished Albertans a Happy Friday.

For Smith and the UCP, it is indeed a day to smile.

© Calgary Herald