The latest changes to provincial riding boundaries were proceeding normally — as boring as humanly possible — until something momentous happened.

Two commissioners appointed by the government proposed a plan that could give the UCP an enduring electoral advantage.

Braid: Startling riding boundary plan could tip Alberta politics to the UCP Back to video

Their surprise minority report outraged the other three panel members.

But not Justice Minister Mickey Amery, who declined to disown it. He suggested all options are open.

The crux is that many city ridings would become “hybrids” extending far into rural territory.

Your weekday lunchtime roundup of curated links, news highlights, analysis and features.

There was an error, please provide a valid email address.

By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of Noon News Roundup will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again

Interested in more newsletters? Browse here.

Lethbridge would suddenly have four ridings, rather than two, all stretching deep into the countryside.

In Calgary, the change would be extreme. The minority report calls for 11 hybrid ridings instead of three.

Rural voters are much more likely to vote UCP than big-city urbanites.

The new hybrids could dilute NDP support and turn key Calgary seats over to the UCP.

Kyle Hutton, a self-described data nerd, superimposed the 2023 election results over both the minority and majority reports.

He found that under the majority proposals, the UCP would win a majority of 48 seats to 41 for the NDP.

That’s close to the outcome of the last election. It suggests the majority boundaries are politically neutral.

The minority report, however, would produce a massive UCP win of 57 seats to 32 for the NDP, according to Hutton.

The three majority members of the boundary panel claim these proposals stray far beyond the goal of reasonable population balance.

“If the Legislature adopts the minority maps, it risks significant legal consequences by way of a court challenge that is likely to be successful,” wrote chair Dallas Miller, a King’s Bench judge, in a scorching rebuttal.

“Even more importantly, it risks jeopardizing faith in Alberta democracy.”

“I do not view separating communities of interest, proposing maps no one asked for, and having electoral divisions in Calgary with populations more than twenty per cent above the provincial average, as an appropriate solution to this problem.”

When the panel released its interim report to the legislature last October, there was no mention of dissent.

Following further input, the final report was delivered March 26, with the new minority plan included.

“There was a last-minute shift amongst the minority,” says Greg Clark, former MLA and Alberta Party leader, who was appointed to the commission by the NDP.

“I won’t speculate on why that is. Obviously, others feel free to do so.”

Boundary commissions, Clark adds, “are not there to put a thumb on the scale for any political party one way or the other.

“We’re looking at population shifts and demographics. That’s what we’re there to do. And that’s what the majority did.”

Municipal boundaries are usually respected when boundaries change, with some exceptions.

Need a tree in your yard? Applications for a city program providing up to two trees per household opens this week News

Need a tree in your yard? Applications for a city program providing up to two trees per household opens this week

Calgary thieves target catalytic converters as precious metal prices skyrocket News

Calgary thieves target catalytic converters as precious metal prices skyrocket

Advertisement 1Story continues belowThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.document.addEventListener(`DOMContentLoaded`,function(){let template=document.getElementById(`oop-ad-template`);if(template&&!template.dataset.adInjected){let clone=template.content.cloneNode(!0);template.replaceWith(clone),template.parentElement&&(template.parentElement.dataset.adInjected=`true`)}});

Graphic of the week: Alberta moisture levels run gamut from north to south News

Graphic of the week: Alberta moisture levels run gamut from north to south

Canadian airlines adding fuel surcharges on flight bookings as jet fuel prices soar News

Canadian airlines adding fuel surcharges on flight bookings as jet fuel prices soar

Mother of missing man needs closure, police implore public for tips in cold case Local News

Mother of missing man needs closure, police implore public for tips in cold case

The minority report challenges this tradition. It says “regional communities function together, and boundaries should reflect those lived patterns rather than rigid municipal lines.

“Crucially, hybrids are not theoretical in Alberta — they are proven and familiar.”

The minority report also points to widespread use of hybrid ridings in other provinces, including B.C., which doesn’t confine ridings in “rigid municipal containers.”

“Hybrid constituencies are not only a good reflection of Alberta, but also the best available instrument for preserving rural and suburban representation in the face of sustained urban growth,” says the minority.

The argument had some support from presenters. It’s presented in logical, non-partisan fashion by the two minority commissioners.

But the result could be deeply partisan.

Calgary ridings would suddenly stretch to Airdrie in the north, Chestermere in the east, and near Okotoks in the south.

Adding eight ridings that stretch deep into the countryside will have a profound electoral impact in a battleground city where several races were decided by only a few hundred votes.

The fate of the duelling reports will be decided in the legislature. We know who runs that place.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

X and Bluesky: @DonBraid

© Calgary Herald